While challenging conditions are expected to continue during 2023, the Scottish economy should see a return to calendar year growth in 2024.
Gross Value Added (GVA) is predicted to rise by 1.6%, helped by a 2.3% increase in consumer spending, as employment and real wages recover, according to the latest EY ITEM Club Scotland Forecast.
Scottish GVA is anticipated to fall by 0.6% in 2023, with decline largely concentrated in the first half of the year. Some sectors can expect to see growth though, led by health and social care (1.2%), education administrative and support services (1.1%) and public administration (0.8%).
