ANALYSIS — With a year to go, it’s clear that the outcome of the 2024 elections is decidedly unclear. With narrow majorities in the House and Senate, and a volatile presidential race, anything from a single-party sweep to a split partisan decision is possible next November.
It could be a banner year for the GOP. In the race for the White House, Republicans get to run against an unpopular incumbent and the oldest president in U.S. history, forcing questions about President Joe Biden’s ability to serve a second term. They have eight viable opportunities to gain the two seats they need for a Senate majority. And it got easier for the GOP to hold the House majority after North Carolina redrew its map.
But Democrats could also run the table. With Republicans rallying behind former President Donald Trump, who has been indicted in four different criminal cases and could be convicted before Election Day, Democrats have an opportunity to win the presidential race. That could propel House candidates to gain the five seats needed to take back the majority. And another cycle of strong incumbents against flawed GOP nominees could help Democrats hold the Senate narrowly.
