My Cato Institute colleagues Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson have a helpful post updating the situation on refunds for Trump's illegally imposed IEEPA tariffs. In February, the IEEPA tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court, in a case I helped bring and litigate (along with the Liberty Justice Center, and others). But before that happened, the Trump administration collected some $166 billion in illegally collected tariffs. As Lincicome, Obregon, and Smitson (LOS) explain, there has been important progress getting refunds for the importers who were illegally forced to pay, but serious problems remain:
Here's where things stand.
On February 20, 2026, the Supreme Court invalidated the tariffs that President Trump implemented last year under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). As of June 29 (more than four months after the ruling), CBP has authorized $104.29 billion in refunds and paid out $71.06 billion (including interest). Based on our calculations of the total amount owed by the government as of June 29 (taking into account interest and payouts), the government still owes importers about $100.65 billion—more than half of the total owed…
CBP deserves credit for giving most eligible importers the opportunity to receive refunds—even if the process was not automatic. It's also good that CBP has now rolled out Phase 2 of its refund (CAPE) system, covering entriesflagged for reconciliation. Refunds could eventually climb to $130 billion of the $166 billion in IEEPA duties paid by importers (before interest).
Eventually.
Indeed, that only $71.06 billion of the approved $104.29 billion has actually been paid suggests that frictions built into the CAPE process are creating obstacles for importers seeking refunds. For example, CBP claims that refunds for 8,384 approved declarations have not been issued because the eligible importers lack proper automated clearinghouse or banking information.
