As President Donald Trump heads into the midterms with hopes that large tax refunds will buoy the Republicans in elections, most Americans will have already had any cash returned from their taxes eaten up by higher prices from a year of Trump’s tariffs.
According to IRS data, the average tax refund jumped about 11% between 2024 and 2025, rising from an average of $3,116 to about $3,462. While the $350 difference is a decent windfall for many households, the increase is already outpaced by the taxes Americans paid via higher prices due to Trump’s tariff policy, with most estimates finding the average household has effectively paid upwards of $1,000 in tariffs, and one congressional estimate finding that a typical household has paid upwards of $1,700 in tariffs.
