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Fortune
Fortune
Peter Vanham, Nicholas Gordon

EXPLAINED: The 2 immovable forces behind 100 per barrel oil | Rare Historical Photos

(Credit: Anindito Mukherjee—Bloomberg via Getty Images)

Good morning, Peter Vanham here in Geneva, filling in for Alan.

Looking a year out, economists don’t just expect “higher for longer” interest rates; that phrase also applies to oil prices, which are predicted to edge up to around $100 per barrel into next summer.

If oil hits that mark, it largely will be due to two factors, Daan Struyven, head of oil research at Goldman Sachs told me this week: a Saudi-led OPEC+ decision to limit supply, and a China- and emerging markets-led increase in demand. Neither of those two factors is likely to abate soon.

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