In his address to the U.S. Congress this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for expanded U.S. support, including additional weapons and a NATO-imposed no-fly zone, as his country continues its fight against Russian invaders. But even as they fight, the Ukrainians are also exploring off-ramps to end the conflict—including possibly accepting the idea of neutrality. Neutrality is a status in international law under which a country commits not to enter international security alliances; for Ukraine, it would likely mean renouncing a future in NATO and not allowing foreign military bases on Ukrainian soil.
While neutrality would carry risks, it need not be a death sentence for Ukraine. It may, in fact, be the best possible outcome, given where things stand after more than three weeks of war. The key to making neutrality work for Ukraine is shaping it in a way that ensures that renunciation of NATO membership does not come at the expense of the country’s self-defense or its prospects for an economic and political future in the West. Such an outcome is possible thanks to the leverage that Ukraine’s doughty military performance will give Zelensky at the negotiating table; it may become increasingly acceptable to Moscow if the Russian military continues to prove incapable of securing its objectives on the battlefield.
