In the wake of decisive victories in the Assembly bypolls in Thrikkakara last year and in Puthuppally recently, the Congress in Kerala has been brimming with confidence. Congress nominee Uma Thomas won the Thrikkakara seat after her husband P.T. Thomas passed away, while Chandy Oommen secured the Puthuppally seat which became vacant following the demise of his father Oommen Chandy. These victories, driven by a wave of sympathy, have bolstered the party’s prospects for the 2024 general elections.
At present, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) leadership is pinning its hopes on several key factors such as its plan to leverage the alleged corruption charges against the CPI (M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) government, the simmering discontent among State government employees over delays in the payment of arrears, and issues plaguing the implementation of welfare programmes. However, the Congress may be misguided if it believes that simply riding on the anti-incumbency sentiment will guarantee electoral success. There continues to be infighting within the party’s ranks and many sitting MPs do not want to enter the fray. On the other hand, the CPI(M) is on a strong wicket.
In 2019, the UDF secured 19 out of the 20 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, partly by creating the impression that the Congress could dislodge the BJP-led government at the Centre. Another factor at play was the CPI(M)’s acceptance of the Supreme Court verdict permitting women of all ages to enter the temple in Sabarimala, resulting in its rout. However, now the Congress central leadership’s push for a caste census has faced resistance from influential figures including G. Sukumaran Nair, general secretary of the Nair Service Society, and Vellappally Natesan, general secretary of the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam, who view it as a mere political stunt.
