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Economic growth seems to be holding up OK. But the labor market is another story. You could even say that we’re in a jobs recession, with hiring down sharply and nearing the point of net job losses. What’s behind the slowdown, and does it portend an outright recession later?
Consider how much hiring has dropped this year. The rate of monthly job creation in the summer of 2024 averaged 89,000. Fast-forward to the summer of 2025 and it fell to just 29,000. More than half of all sectors and industries in the U.S. are seeing employment decline right now. The bulk of job gains now are in healthcare and hospitality. The hiring rate, meaning the number of new jobs as a percentage of total employment, is the lowest it has been since 2010, after the Great Recession.
