The summer is nearly here, meaning we’re getting closer to the start of fantasy football drafts. Success in those drafts will come from landing terrific bargains in the middle to late rounds while avoiding players who could see their numbers decline compared to 2021. That latter exercise isn’t easy, however, especially in the case of players who are among the elite at their position or are coming off breakout seasons in the stat sheets.
Case in point: In 2020, Alvin Kamara went absolutely bananas with nearly 380 fantasy points. Had he not missed a Week 17 game due to COVID-19, he would have had a chance to score over 400 fantasy points on the season. As a result, he was the third overall pick, on average, in most 2021 drafts. The results, though, weren’t as good.
Kamara scored 12 fewer total touchdowns, 143.1 fewer fantasy points and averaged 6.14 fewer points compared to his 2020 campaign. It was a massive drop off in terms of his overall production, but it wasn’t completely unpredictable. In fact, those of you who read my “The Fantasy Case Against” series last season might have seen it coming.
