A season ago, the Heat were the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference and the No. 1 three-point shooting team in the NBA, and they came one Jimmy Butler three away from potentially making the Finals. Fast forward to March 2023, and Miami is fighting to stay out of the play-in. The Heat are the No. 27 three-point shooting team in the NBA and looking up at all their younger, hotter conference rivals. And all of that is happening despite a hyperefficient season from Butler and a career year from Bam Adebayo. Can the Heat be fixed? Or is this their new normal?
It’s not too difficult to diagnose Miami’s biggest problem this season: shooting. A recent slide notwithstanding, the Heat are still gritty as ever defensively, ranking fifth in defensive efficiency. Offensively, Miami ranks 26th in points per 100 possessions, ahead of only four blatant tank squads. Effectively, the Heat have the worst offense in the NBA among teams that are actively trying to win games.
Miami’s offense was slightly above average last season, buoyed by its three-point attack. That shooting has fallen off a cliff. The Heat converted a league-best 37.9% of their threes in 2022. This year, they are shooting 33.7% on 34.6 attempts a night. Pretty much everyone on the roster bears responsibility. Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo and Duncan Robinson have all seen their three-point percentages dip. P.J. Tucker, a reliable corner option for much of last year, is no longer on the team. Strus and Oladipo went from shooting in the low 40s to the low 30s. Their outside shots were all necessary to keep Miami’s struggling half-court offense afloat last year. This season, the team has cratered on that side of the floor.
