According to Donald Trump, Iran is on the ropes and “willing to give us practically anything.” This, as the weekend exchanges of fire indicate, is fantasy. Yet it’s worth rethinking these stop-start peace talks as more of a process necessary to establish what the post-conflict balance of forces in the region will really be. That implies a choppy future for the negotiations — but also suggests they could yet salvage something positive from an ill-judged war.
Iran, for example, established during the fighting that it can close the Strait of Hormuz, so it now wants to embed that leverage for peacetime use. But how much control can it demand? By moving tankers through Omani waters, often with their transponders off, the US is saying "not much"; Tehran has pushed back by striking vessels using the Omani route without its permission. The contest is far from over.
