The old line that "history does not repeat itself, but often rhymes", is an apt description of the evolving relationship between the West and its rivals. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was a global superpower, owing to its military prowess. Today, Russia's armed forces appear to be in a dismal state, but the country has become an energy superpower that can use its vast natural-gas reserves as a weapon. Similarly, today's standoff between the West and Russia over Ukraine echoes the Cold War confrontation between authoritarianism and democracy.
With winter looming, the Kremlin's shutdown of gas flows to the European Union could have severe consequences, triggering the biggest energy crisis in 50 years. Though increasing deliveries of gas from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Norway will help mitigate the EU's dependence on Russian supplies in the short run, it is not a long-term solution.
The weaponisation of energy resources underscores the need for a new kind of alliance among the world's democracies. At the Baltic Sea Energy Security Summit in Denmark two months ago, Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden, and the European Commission offered a preliminary blueprint for what closer energy coordination might look like. All the countries in attendance signed a declaration committing them to increase their combined offshore wind-energy capacity by almost sevenfold over the next eight years. By 2030, offshore wind farms in the Baltics alone should be capable of producing 19.6 gigawatts per year, enough to meet the demands of 28.5 million European homes.
