Call it the Trump Law of Inverse Reactions: Everything that would seem to hurt the former president only makes him stronger.
Why it matters: Trump's grip over Republicans seems stronger than ever — and chances of beating President Biden are as high as ever.
- This dynamic is similar to the stunning election of 2016.
Former President Trump, in the past few months, has:
- Been indicted on 34 felony counts.
- Learned that someone who has worked for him at Mar-a-Lago is cooperating with federal prosecutors on whether he hid documents.
- Faced a civil trial over a rape accusation from 1996.
- Defended his "Access Hollywood" contention that celebrities like himself can grab women by their genitals: "[H]istorically, that’s true with stars."
- Faced rising competition from credible '24 challengers, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
- Seen a growing likelihood he'll be indicted again — this time for trying to corrupt the 2020 election results.
- Faced rising competition from credible '24 challengers, including Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina.
At the same time that all of the above was happening, Trump has:
- Moved up in Republican primary and general-election polls.
- Won a flurry of '24 endorsements from House Republicans — including several from Florida, beating DeSantis at a high-stakes inside game.
- Raised a formidable $34 million for his '24 campaign — with a surge of donations after his indictment.
- Run former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who looked set for a '24 run, out of the race.
- Revved up his voters with continued claims that the Deep State is targeting him — which doubles as an appeal to all voters who view elites skeptically.
What we're hearing: For the first time in a long time, top Republicans and Democrats are telling us the same thing, in the same words — Trump looks impossible to beat for the Republican nomination.
- And if Trump is the GOP nominee, he could have a better-than-coin-flip chance of moving back into the White House. A Washington Post-ABC News poll out Sunday had Trump leading Biden by seven points — outside the margin of error — in a theoretical rematch.
- A stunning finding in that poll: Even though majorities think Trump should face criminal charges, 18% (!) of those who want him arrested still back him over Biden.
The bottom line: Here's another echo of 2016. Beltway and establishment Republicans are fantasizing that something magical will make Trump go away — instead of deploying a coordinated effort to supplant him.
- You know how that worked out last time.
Josh Kraushaar contributed reporting.
Editor's note: This newsletter item has been corrected to show Trump faced a civil trial over a rape accusation from 1996, not a charge.
