The road ahead will not get any easier for the Trudeau Liberals. With Donald Trump set to retake residence in the White House in January—likely backed by Republican majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives—a weakened Liberal government in Ottawa will have its hands full during what polling indicates may be its final months in power.
Leger released its latest federal poll in early November, containing no positive news for the incumbents. The poll’s top line shows a dominant Conservative Party with a lead of sixteen points in voting intentions, with the Conservatives at 42 percent against the Liberals at 26 percent. (The poll was fielded from November 1 to 3, 2024, with a sample of 1,549 Canadian respondents.) While 26 percent represents the higher end of current confidence levels for the Liberals, Leger recorded a crushing twenty- and twenty-five-point advantage for the Conservatives over the Liberals in Ontario and British Columbia respectively.
