Good morning.
A few thoughts as we try to read the tea leaves to discern who is likely to win tomorrow’s U.S. election. The polling data that was pointing to a potential victory for Donald Trump just a week ago appears to have shifted towards Kamala Harris. Polymarket still favors Trump to win, but those odds have shrunk to him getting 54% of votes cast vs. 65% last week. Polling expert Frank Luntz suggests we’ve reached the limit on how much the polls can tell us, instead advising people to look at the nature of the turnout: a surge in young women at the polls bodes well for Kamala, more young men may suggest higher numbers for Trump.
