It’s easy to see why Ken Paxton thought he could waltz right into the role of senator from Texas. Sure, the state’s Republican nominee and current attorney general is widely seen as one of the most corrupt men in politics, a man with so many scandals that even his fellow Republicans impeached him. (Sadly, the Texas Senate refused to convict him.) Still, Donald Trump won over 56% of the vote in Texas in 2024, despite the Jan. 6th riot and his felony convictions for fraud in New York, so it seemed voters don’t care about corruption. Paxton has been so sure it would be simple to beat his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, that he even blew off campaigning over much of the summer in favor of a luxury European vacation with his alleged mistress, a conservative Christian influencer named Tracy Duhon.
Now Paxton is starting to worry. He even brought Trump to Texas on Aug. 27 to lead a fundraiser for his campaign. Talarico is ahead in the polls, which hasn’t been true for a Democrat in a statewide race for decades. The Cook Political Report, which tends to be reluctant to buck historical trends, nonetheless changed the election rating from “leans Republican” to “toss-up” in late August. Perhaps even more shocking is that Talarico is pulling this off by making issues of character and corruption central to the race, positioning himself as a genuinely pious Christian, in contrast with Paxton’s seemingly endless hypocrisy and debauched behavior.
