No one likes to be caught in the act. Homes and businesses use CCTV cameras as a deterrent against crime and to document criminal behaviour when it occurs. Something similar can be said to have occurred in the current Russian invasion of Ukraine. Cameras in space are recording the activity of the war, sharing the movement of Russian forces with all of us, and documenting their war crimes.
Ordinary citizens watching the evening news will know more about Russian troop dispositions in and around Ukraine than many heads of state would have been able to access in previous century’s conflicts. In a 2021 study, researchers found nations possessing reconnaissance satellites were less likely to be attacked than other states. Surprise is an attractive and useful force multiplier in war — an attacker that can invade unannounced is more likely to win a war or major dispute. Spying from space using satellite technology makes it much harder for a nation to achieve strategic, or even tactical surprise, especially when attempting to conduct a larger, more intensive attack.
The number of governments possessing their own reconnaissance satellites remains limited but has steadily grown, especially over the past two decades. This includes SpaceX, a leading private space exploration company, placing a Ukrainian reconnaissance satellite into orbit for the first time in January of this year. Open-source satellite imagery has become ubiquitous, but such imagery only became commercially available in 2000. The quality of satellite images’ resolution has also dramatically increased. Possessing national satellites still provides governments with significant advantages in having real-time access to satellite imagery and offers the ability to direct where satellites look.
