SUMMARY:
We reviewed and analyzed cannabis confiscations and related activities recently published by various state and federal agencies. This enables us to determine a floor value for the illicit market. Its growth seemingly outpaced that of the legal market post pandemic and is much greater than we originally assumed (now likely exceeding $100B); California continues as the artery for its distribution (>80% from CA).
California’s recreational use market has been disadvantaged by its haphazard rollout but, as the industry continues to evolve, we believe the strength of the illicit market will begin to dwindle as:
