- The key point to keep in mind when thinking about the global soybean market is that the US has been made less than great again, taking a secondary player role since January 2018.
- That being said, the National Soybean Index is in a long-term uptrend, indicating available stocks-to-use are tightening, but not tight.
- Looking ahead to new-crop, commercial traders are showing some concern over Brazil's potential 2026 production.
This past week has seen a brighter spotlight put on the US oilseed sub-sector due to the release of the EPA’s imaginary renewable fuels standard number for 2026. (As I often say, particularly given the current environment, if you believe this number from this administration then I’ve got a mountain-top villa in south-central Kansas to sell you.) With traders continuing to transition from old-crop to new-crop, the question is what do we KNOW about the US soybean market? Our reads on real market fundamentals (the National Soybean Index, national average basis, futures spreads) tell us 3 things, at least.
