For years, the unofficial rule of beauty spending was that small indulgences survive almost any economy. A blowout, a gel manicure, a lash refill: cheap enough to feel harmless, expensive enough to feel like a treat. Economists even gave the pattern a name, the lipstick effect, the idea that shoppers trade down on big purchases but keep spending on small ones that make them feel good.
That rule is starting to bend. Beauty executives surveyed by McKinsey for 2026 named consumer scrutiny of value, not inflation or competition, as the single biggest risk facing the industry, and most expect future growth to come from somewhere other than price increases. The same shift shows up in how people talk about spending. One widely cited industry figure puts the share of U.S. consumers who now prefer "dupes," cheaper alternatives to pricier products, at 56 percent. Gen Z in particular has stopped treating "affordable" as a compromise and started treating it as proof of being a smart shopper. Market researchers describe this less as belt-tightening than as a more deliberate kind of shopping, with the same consumer mixing premium pieces and cheaper substitutes within a single routine rather than abandoning either tier outright.
