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Barchart
Barchart
Andrew Hecht

MYSTERIOUS: Where is lumber heading in 2025 - What They Never Told You

CME

The CME’s physical lumber futures contract moved 5.66% higher in Q4 2024 but was 3.76% lower in 2024, settling at $550.50 per 1,000 board feet on December 31, 2024. In a mid-November 2024 Barchart article on lumber, I concluded:

Pent-up demand for homeownership is a serious factor for 2025. If mortgage rates begin to decline, we could see a housing boom that would lead to rising lumber demand. The illiquid lumber futures arena could spark a rally in lumber-related products during the first half of 2025. As construction tends to be seasonal, favoring spring, the lumber futures market could be poised to rally above technical resistance levels over the first half of 2025. Lumber’s 2021 and 2022 peaks occurred during May and March, making the end of 2024 a great time to put lumber and lumber-related products on your investment radar. 

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