- Last marketing year, all the talk was of slow US corn exports, demand heavily influenced by a lack of available supplies in the United States.
- A similar situation seems to be brewing in the US soybean market this marketing year, with total sales running more than 20% behind last year's pace.
- Deferred soybean futures spreads are indicating the commercial side of the market is growing more concerned about global supply and demand, though much will depend on Brazilian weather.
My previous piece for Barchart sparked a good discussion on export demand for US soybeans. After I showed 2023-2024 total sales (total shipments plus unshipped sales) were running 26% behind the same week the previous year, as of Tuesday, November 2, the question came in about a comparison to the previous 5-year average. This raised a valid point; one I’ve talked about before regarding 2022-2023 US corn export demand: You can’t make sales of what doesn’t exist. I think there is a law about that sort of thing somewhere. I do recall an old market saying that goes, “He who sells what isn’t his’n, pays the price and goes to prison”. This year, the short US crop looks to be soybeans.
