When the 27 EU heads of government convene in Brussels in December, they will face one of the most momentous decisions in the history of the European Union: whether to start membership negotiations with Ukraine. The European Commission’s recommendation this week that talks begin means that the European Council will almost certainly give the green light, but this doesn’t imply that Ukraine will be allowed to join any time soon. In fact, the war-torn country may well find itself trapped in negotiations that go nowhere.
Nato’s reluctance to make good on its promise of membership for Ukraine is one reason to expect protracted talks between Brussels and Kyiv. Eleven out of the 16 countries that have joined the EU since 1995 did so as Nato members – a status that helps to protect states such as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from Russian aggression. The EU’s security and defence policy is too weak to match these security guarantees and its mutual defence clause, which offers aid and assistance to member states that are the victims of armed aggression, is untested.
