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Seasonal Analysis shows us the cyclical waves over a 12-month period (calendar year, marketing year, other), a reflection of the ebb and flow of supply and demand.
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The second weekly close of June (last Friday, June 12) was the seasonal peak for the National HRW Wheat Index.
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The HRW futures market has some solid seasonal patterns before the Krampus Countdown begins late in the fall.
My friend Michelle from Italy sent me a message recently, to discuss his take on the HRW winter wheat market, aka Poverty Grass, aka The Cockroach of the Grains Sector. To begin with, my friend titled his message “Let's talk about fundamentals”, something I look forward to in this day and age of algorithm trade driven largely on misinformation from not necessarily the Truth Social media posts creating headlines. Michele talked about HRW's seasonal tendencies, with the July issue coming under pressure heading into delivery as “Rule 6 closes the game”. (Recall my Market Rule #6 says, “Fundamentals win in the end”. This idea has been tested of late, but I still believe in it.) My friend was wondering what the longer-term seasonal pattern was, spanning the gap between early summer harvest and the start of the Krampus Countdown (Don't be long wheat in December). It's a timely question given what both the 5-year and 10-year tendencies of the National HRW Wheat Index.
