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DARK SECRETS: Kevin warsh | Vintage Vibes

5 world market themes for the week ahead

With the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan set to make pivotal interest rate decisions against a backdrop of escalating energy prices, global financial markets brace for change. Meanwhile, BRICS leaders convene in India to explore the integration of central bank digital currencies for seamless payments. In Sweden, the…

The Economic Times

US consumer prices accelerate in August, push Fed closer to rate hike

In August, consumer prices surged, strengthening the anticipation of Federal Reserve rate hikes. The core inflation saw its most substantial rise in four months, pointing to ongoing price pressures across the economy. Rising energy costs have affected multiple sectors, with consumers bracing for higher inflation expectations that may dampen economic…

The Economic Times

Wall Street thought the hiking cycle was over. Now Kevin Warsh has his ‘back against the wall’

Hotter inflation, above $100 oil and a 10-year Treasury yield flirting with 5% have put another round of rate hikes back on the table.

Fortune

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Fed rate-hike bets rise to 85% after hot August inflation data

Recent inflation figures have exceeded expectations, leading many to anticipate a rate hike from the Federal Reserve. Core consumer prices increased more than what economists forecasted last month, and alongside rising oil prices, this trend indicates that inflation is on an upward trajectory. Traders are now estimating an 85% likelihood…

The Economic Times

US inflation picked up as gas prices marched higher due to conflict in the Middle East

US inflation held at 3.4% in August from a year earlier, while monthly consumer prices accelerated 0.4% as renewed Middle East fighting pushed up gasoline costs. Core inflation eased to 2.4% annually but rose 0.3% monthly, adding uncertainty over whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week.

The Economic Times

US consumers faced more high prices in August as Iran war raised energy costs

Annualized inflation rate was 3.4%, same as July, and core inflation, which omits energy and food prices, rose to 2.4%

The Guardian - US

Aswath Damodaran calls Fed rate debate pointless, says stock market adapts quickly to higher rates

Aswath Damodaran argues that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate debate is overemphasized, saying corporate earnings and fundamentals will ultimately drive US stocks. Rising Treasury yields, $40 trillion debt and inflation fears remain concerns, but stronger earnings have helped equities remain resilient.

The Economic Times

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Inflation report lands amid spiking oil prices, rising interest rates and Fed on fence

Friday’s inflation report is shaping up to be among the most consequential in years

The Independent UK

Inflation won’t die. Now the bond market is daring the Fed to do something about it

The 10-year Treasury yield is nearing 5% as oil, tariffs and sticky service prices raise fears that Kevin Warsh may have to restart the rate-hiking cycle.

Fortune

US wholesale prices rise in latest sign of stubborn inflation as oil prices continue to climb

Wholesale inflation increased in August after cooling earlier this summer. Higher oil and gas prices, driven by Middle East conflict, are keeping costs elevated. This rise in producer prices could influence the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision. Consumers are experiencing more expensive gas, groceries, and other essential items. The…

The Economic Times

Bond market rebuffs US treasury’s plan to buy back $6bn in government debt

Scott Bessent made announcement on Wednesday as bond yields rose to highest point since 2008 financial crisis

The Guardian - UK

A European Central Bank rate hike is all but certain, the reasoning less so

The European Central Bank is all but certain to raise interest rates on Thursday, with investors pricing the move at near-total probability, but the decision is more awkward than the numbers suggest as inflation is being driven almost entirely by energy with underlying pressures actually easing.

Euronews

Trump's latest threat just baffled one and all, but it could turn out to be a major gift to Fed's Kevin Warsh

President Trump’s remarks about US interest rates in relation to trade sparked confusion among market experts. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, though, can use this opportunity to reinforce his independence. By pushing for a rate hike, Warsh could enhance his reputation and insulate himself from the perception of White House's influence,…

The Economic Times

As Wall Street shifts expectations towards a Fed rate hike, the White House turns up the pressure on Warsh's central bank

"High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Fortune

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International Business Times

Trump, Aides Clamor To Sway Fed's Policy. Is Kevin Warsh In A Fix?

This is an unusual public clamor by the administration's top aides ahead of a Fed meet. Many of the Trump administration have also called for a rate cut instead. The idea seems to be to facilitate a narrative in which to pressurize the Fed under its new chair Kevin Warsh,…

The Economic Times

How will Nifty, Sensex behave on Monday? US Fed rate hike bets, among 4 factors to drive D-Street action

Indian equities may remain volatile as rising crude prices, elevated global bond yields and renewed US rate-hike bets weigh on sentiment. However, strong FPI inflows, resilient GDP growth, better-than-expected earnings and rupee stability offer some support.

International Business Times

Investors Await Inflation Data, ECB Cues And Oracle Numbers. Rate Trajectory in Focus.

The US will release its August the Producer Price Index report and US Consumer Price Index for August next week.The PPI report will provide details on prices for businesses before these are passed along with the costs to consumers. The reports will give Wall Street and the Federal Reserve a…

International Business Times UK

'I'll Stop Trading': Donald Trump Threatens Complete Global Trade Ban if the Fed Won't Lower Rates

Trump threatens to halt US trade with deficit countries unless the Federal Reserve cuts rates, escalating his pressure on Chair Kevin Warsh after a stronger-than-expected August jobs report on Friday.

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The Economic Times

Strong jobs report fuels Fed rate hike prospects as Trump escalates rate cut pressure

A stronger US jobs report has raised expectations of a September Fed rate hike, while Donald Trump has stepped up pressure on the central bank to cut interest rates. Markets now await US inflation data, which could determine the Fed's next policy move.

Euronews

Bond yields are surging globally but why aren’t equities falling?

Higher bond yields are alarming investors, but strong growth and record earnings may help equity markets absorb the rising borrowing costs.

The Independent UK

Trump threatens to stop trade with other countries if the US doesn’t lower its own interest rates

President’s Truth Social post conflates Fed’s prime rate with an individual obtaining lower interest on a car loan

The Economic Times

Jefferies’ Chris Wood sees a structural bear market in US bonds. What it means for stocks and gold

Jefferies has warned that persistent pressure on US Treasury yields could create a challenging environment for equity markets, particularly for bond-sensitive assets such as REITs. While higher yields have weighed on Singapore REITs, the brokerage sees selective opportunities in the sector and remains constructive on gold and gold-mining stocks as…

Fortune

Workers’ share of America’s income is at a record low before the AI boom even begins

EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco says that the economy’s surprising productivity gains so far predate AI.

The Economic Times

US Fed rate cut bets fall below 50% after Governor Chris Waller’s comments. What did he say?

Expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut at its September 16 meeting have weakened sharply, with traders now pricing in less than a 50% chance of a reduction, according to CME FedWatch data. Comments from Fed officials, including Christopher Waller and Kevin Warsh, have reinforced uncertainty over the policy…

The Independent UK

Fed's Waller says central bank's next rate move depends on upcoming inflation report

Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller says that an inflation report next week will largely determine whether he supports an interest rate hike later this month or not

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