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HISTORICAL FACTS: Claudia sahm | History Defined

Americans have never been this gloomy about the economy. Wall Street has never cashed in harder

“Stock markets respond to risks shifting around,” top economist Claudia Sahm told Fortune. “Households respond to reality.”

Fortune

Economists agree: You’re not crazy for feeling like the rich get richer, and the poor are doing worse. Welcome to the 'K-shaped economy'

What was a niche argument about five years ago is suddenly everywhere you look, and it’s taking on the shape of a letter with two jagged edges.

Fortune

'I just don't have a good feeling about this': Top economist Claudia Sahm says the economy quietly shifted while policymakers wait for the wrong alarm

EXCLUSIVE: The creator of the Sahm Rule on why she’s concerned about the long-term health of America’s economy.

Fortune

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Fed up: inside Trump’s unprecedented bid to exert control over the US central bank

The US president and his allies spent 2025 attacking the Federal Reserve amid a rollercoaster year for the US economy

The Guardian - US

The cash bazooka: Why Trump wants to send you money

Trump has talked up tariff-funded rebate checks, a $1,776 "warrior dividend" and plans to send billions to farmers.

Axios

The Fed delivers a rare ‘hawkish cut’ as Powell tries to steady a softening job market

The Fed is clearly deeply divided. Three officials dissented, in opposite directions.

Fortune

‘Be careful what you wish for’: Top economist warns any additional interest rate cuts after today would signal the economy is slipping into danger

Jerome Powell’s Federal Reserve will likely deliver its final cut of the year on Wednesday. But Claudia Sahm is already looking ahead.

Fortune

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Economists agree: You’re not crazy for feeling like the rich get richer, and the poor are doing worse. Welcome to the ‘K-shaped economy’

What was a niche argument about five years ago is suddenly everywhere you look, and it’s taking on the shape of a letter with two jagged edges.

Fortune

PCE data paints a solid picture, but hidden cracks show tariffs quietly squeezing U.S. consumers—and weak job growth could put them over the edge

Never underestimate the U.S. consumer, economists say.

Fortune

A $100 billion mystery is unfolding on tariffs and inflation and economists are cracking the case

The hottest question in economics is why the massive price hikes tariffs were supposed to bring still haven’t materialized halfway through 2025.

Fortune

Hiring slows across US amid uncertainty over Trump’s tariffs

The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits has risen to the highest level in eight months

The Independent UK

US employers added a solid 139,000 jobs in May despite uncertainty over trade wars

U.S. employers slowed hiring last month, but still adding a solid 139,000 jobs amid uncertainty over Trump’s trade wars

The Independent UK

‘The smell of stagflation’ is mounting as Trump’s Liberation Day arrives

Stagflation fears are mounting, warns Deutsche Bank, as Donald Trump's latest tariff announcements tick closer.

Fortune

How were so many economists wrong on whether we’d have a recession? Northern Trust’s Ryan Boyle points to 3 culprits

Recession red flags had a track record that “was never perfect, but they have really failed us during the past two years,” says Boyle.

Fortune

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Fortune

Markets are finally believing Fed chair Jerome Powell will pull off his soft landing

"The general direction of U.S. employment signals an economy very far from 'recession,'" wrote UBS chief economist Paul Donovan.

Fortune

BofA details clients’ 5 major economic fears—then knocks them all down

“For now, we think the broader macro data flow does not point to recession," Bank of America's economics team wrote Monday.

Fortune

The Fed and chair Powell are 24 hours away from making market-moving news. Here’s what to expect

"The equity markets have remained resilient, particularly favoring value and dividend-paying stocks this quarter. This inclination may gain momentum as the Fed begins to implement rate cuts."

The Conversation

What’s a recession – and how can we tell if we’re in one?

This article is part of The Conversation’s “Business Basics” series where we ask experts to discuss key concepts in business, economics and finance.

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Kiplinger

What Is the Sahm Rule, and What Does It Mean?

This will be the first significant test of the Sahm rule under relatively normal circumstances.

The Guardian - AU

Unemployment is rising and Australia’s economy is weak – but don’t hit the recession alarm just yet

Are we headed for a recession? The answer is complex – although for young people it already feels like one

Fortune

Top economist: More people are looking for a job, but not because they were laid off

The unemployment rate reflects the fact that the number of workers is growing, not that more people are losing their jobs.

The Independent UK

Experts are warning of a global recession. Here’s what that actually means

While warning about a 25 percent chance of an economic downturn, Goldman Sachs said the US economy remains “fine overall,” and that the recession risk is “limited”

The Guardian - UK

Warning signs of US recession may be bad news for Kamala Harris

Cracks in labour market provide Trump with evidence for his message that Biden has been disaster for the economy

Fortune

Powell faces a market mutiny if he doesn't make a September rate cut—Wall Street has 'locked in' timings after unemployment concerns

"The bottom line is that the weaker-than-expected July employment report led us to change our baseline expectation for the first Fed to September."

Fortune

Despite the stock crash, the AI-fueled bubble will soon regain momentum, economist says

Capital Economics said a recession is unlikely and growth will even reaccelerate after a soft patch in the second half of this year.

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