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EXPLAINED: Mark zandi | Vintage Vibes

Collapse is near: Trump's window to resolve Iran crisis closing fast

West Asia tensions are escalating, impacting global markets. Iranian attacks and US strikes near the Strait of Hormuz are disrupting oil supplies. Economists warn of a significant economic shock if a US-Iran agreement remains elusive. This conflict threatens jobs and economic growth worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia. The world…

The Economic Times

What Is Trump's Iran War Costing Americans? New Study Has An Answer

Moody's Analytics reports that Trump's military action in Iran has cost U.S. households $100 billion (£79 billion), largely due to higher energy prices, with middle- and lower-income families most affected.

International Business Times UK

Here’s the impact of Trump’s Iran war on your household budget

Economists warn the financial strain will weigh heavily on middle and lower-income families

The Independent UK

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Iran War has cost U.S. families $100 billion between increased military funding and higher oil prices, finds Moody's

"With the saving rate about as low as it ever goes ... [consumers] will have little choice but to rein in their spending, weighing further on the already sagging economy."

Fortune

U.S. Households Have Paid Nearly $450 More Since Iran War Began, Analysis Shows

Americans have paid nearly $450 more per household in fuel-related costs since the start of the U.S.-Iran war, a new analysis shows.

International Business Times

Americans have paid an additional $59 billion in inflated fuel prices since Trump started his Iran war

The extra $450 spent by each US household has already eaten up this year’s $380 increase in the average tax refund

The Independent UK

Trump’s tariffs have done ‘significant damage’ to US economy, top financial group warns

‘The U.S. economy is resilient, but just how resilient is set to be tested,’ the chief economist at Moody’s Analytics said

The Independent UK

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A year on from Liberation Day, Trump's tariffs have done 'significant damage' to the U.S. economy, says Moody's chief economist

"Since that day, job growth has come to a standstill," Zandi says.

Fortune

You had a miserable 2025 because of tariff inflation. The Iran war will be even worse, top economist says

One year after Liberation Day, tariffs have frozen hiring and fueled inflation. Now, Moody’s Mark Zandi sees the war in Iran threatening to deepen the damage.

Fortune

The global economy has a month—eight weeks at most—to avoid a recession, warns top economist

“The irony in all this is that the U.S., which started the war, does better in relative terms than anybody else because of its energy supplies.”

Fortune

Good news: Rumors of a K-shaped economy have been overblown so far, says Goldman Sachs. Bad news: 2026 is when it will really bite

“There are a lot of people out there who can no longer afford perhaps the most quintessential component of the American Dream, which is property ownership. So they’re being forced to rent, and it’s showing up in prices.”

Fortune

Tariff Refunds Set To Bypass Consumers As Companies Keep Payouts, CFO Survey Finds

Despite possible tariff refunds following court rulings, companies are preparing to retain any repayments rather than pass benefits on to households, according to CFO survey data and economists.

International Business Times

The job market is so bad, workers now think they have worse odds of finding a role than during the pandemic

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows that Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their job prospects.

Fortune

Top economist Mark Zandi says the indicator that has called every recession since WWII just signaled we're already in one

The Vicious Cycle Index is a recession indicator that takes labor force participation changes into consideration. The top economist at Moody’s Analytics said it’s flashing red.

Fortune

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Fortune

How the Iran war adds to the U.S. K-shaped economy through higher gas prices

Americans could be on the hook for an extra $8 billion in gas prices, and some families will feel it more than others.

The Independent UK

Worries about global economic pain deepen as the war in Iran drags on

U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran have darkened the outlook for the world economy

Fortune

New York is home to 154 billionaires. Together they're worth $975.7 billion—and some of them are even making $2 million an hour

It would take the typical New York private-sector worker 82,863 years to earn as much as one of the 10 wealthiest billionaires did last year on average, according to a new Oxfam America report.

Fortune

Mark Zandi warns recession odds are creeping toward 50%, and the Iran war could launch us into economic turmoil by midyear

As oil steadily climbs above $100 per barrel and Iran rejects a U.S. peace proposal, Moody’s chief economist says recession odds are only getting worse.

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news in one place.

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Fortune

Economists agree: You’re not crazy for feeling like the rich get richer, and the poor are doing worse. Welcome to the 'K-shaped economy'

What was a niche argument about five years ago is suddenly everywhere you look, and it’s taking on the shape of a letter with two jagged edges.

Fortune

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Euronews

Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.

International Business Times UK

Ray Dalio Says US Will Lose The War With Iran if It Fails to Break the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the United States risks an 'empire-ending' defeat and the collapse of the petrodollar if it fails to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Independent UK

Lousy job growth and sky-high gas: Trump’s economy is in crisis and puts his presidency at risk

Moody’s Mark Zandi tells Eric Garcia that high gas prices will make it ‘very difficult to kind of get Americans back thinking, believing or buying into the idea that things were going at all well’

Fortune

Top economist says companies are close to a 'Cortes moment' on AI, referencing the conquistador who burned his boats and then invaded Mexico

Moody’s Analytics chief economist warned firms are approaching the point of no return on AI adoption—and the labor market may feel it first.

Fortune

Your grandparents are the reason the U.S. isn't in a recession right now. That won't last forever

Boomers—particularly wealthy older people—are “driving the train” when it comes to the economy right now, economists told Fortune.

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