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THE TRUTH ABOUT: 19 | History Defined

The false premise of prediction markets

Prediction market Polymarket has become increasingly popular throughout the 2024 U.S. election.

Fortune

Polymarket Trends On X As Trump's Odds Skyrocket To New Record High

Polymarket is a hot topic on X Tuesday night as the election numbers begin pouring out, with Donald Trump's odds of winning the presidency surging continuously.

International Business Times

Betting markets swing hard to Trump with early election tallies

Apps such as Polymarket and Kalshi place Trump as likely winner as election officials continue to count ballots

The Guardian - US

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Bettors Say This Swing State Will Be The Last One Called, Could Decide 2024 Election

More than $83,800 has been wagered on the exotic side wager, which will be determined by Associated Press projections, according to the Polymarket website.

International Business Times

Gamblers spend more than $3.3bn on Polymarket betting on 2024 presidential election, mostly for Trump

Interest in political betting has surged during 2024 election

The Independent UK

Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election—and the majority of bets are on Trump winning

The majority of bets went for Trump, with $1.3 billion wagered on the former president and $827 million on Harris.

Fortune

Trump’s lead over Harris in betting market erodes as platforms tighten odds

Top platforms had placed Republican ahead but Democrat is catching up and even leads on one app

The Guardian - US

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Polymarket users who bet on the presidential election might not see pay day until the inauguration

If top news outlets don’t call the election for the same candidate, the cryptocurrency-based prediction market will wait until Jan. 20 to pay out.

Fortune

Trump leads Harris on Robinhood’s new prediction market with 100 million contracts traded

Robinhood rolled out its new prediction market last month.

Fortune

Polymarket 1 Day Before US Elections: Kamala Harris' Chances Jump, VP Retakes 2 Swing States

Polymarket is heating up with just one day left before the elections, and it appears the vice president still hasn't lost touch with crypto bettors as they have slightly driven her chances up, narrowing Trump's massive lead from last week.

International Business Times

Americans are turning to VPN services to bet on the US election

Five days away from the US presidential elections, people are turning to Polymarket VPNs to bet on the winner.

TechRadar

The French 'whale' who made massive pro-Trump bets is only doing it for the money and could win $80 million, report says

The trader told the Wall Street Journal he has no political agenda and that he thinks polls are understating Trump’s election odds.

Fortune

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Polling experts point to ‘fake polls’ exaggerating his support, with baseless lawsuits alleging fraud already filed

The Guardian - UK

Donald Trump’s net worth plunges by more than $1 billion in one day as his meme stock tanks

The drop comes after a scorching-hot October rally and concerns that the Trump campaign may have committed an unforced error with less than a week left.

Fortune

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The Independent UK

A French gambler’s $50m of bets inflated Trump’s odds - and is threatening democracy

IN FOCUS: Funded by billionaire Trump supporter Peter Thiel, Polymarket is forecasting a landslide for the Republican candidate. But some fear the massively inflated odds will be used by the Republican candidate as evidence that the election was stolen, writes Anthony Cuthbertson

The Independent UK

The latest betting odds on Trump vs Harris

What do the betting markets look like ahead of the presidential election — and should we read anything into them, really?

Fortune

Bitcoin teases all-time high days from presidential election

The currency last broke $73,000 in March following the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Fortune

Exclusive: Election betting site Polymarket is rife with fake ‘wash’ trading, researchers say

Blockchain evidence points to users carrying out market manipulation to inflate trading volumes on the popular political betting platform.

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news in one place.

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International Business Times

Trump Memecoins Lead PolitiFi Slump Ahead Of US Elections

Many PolitiFi memecoins saw significant declines in the last 24 hours, and most of them are based on Donald Trump, who has positioned himself as a pro-Bitcoin and pro-crypto candidate.

International Business Times

More Than $3.6B In Online Bets Are Riding On The Outcome Of The 2024 Election

Gamblers overwhelmingly favor former President Donald Trump over Vice President Kamala Harris, despite polls that show the race is a toss-up.

The Independent UK

‘Never had data that looks this good’: Team Trump super confident heading into campaign’s final week

The former president often tells supporters he is ‘leading’ in polls and swing states - but the numbers remain deadlocked with only a week to go

Fortune

Long before Polymarket, election polls and predictions were always a form of popular entertainment with a checkered record of accuracy

Polls misfired during the election campaigns of 2012, 2016, and 2020. Their collective performance four years ago was their worst since 1980.

International Business Times

Polymarket Whale Bets $2M On Trump's 67% Election Odds

With the U.S. election just days away, several mysterious whales have popped up on the blockchain prediction market.

Fortune

Exclusive: Prediction market Kalshi launches crypto deposits as Trump maintains big lead on betting sites

Kalshi still lags behind Polymarket, the offshore leader among electoral betting markets.

Fortune

Robinhood wants a piece of the prediction markets pie: Users can now bet on who will win the presidential election

In recent weeks, prediction markets have shifted heavily in favor of Donald Trump, while voter polls show him tied with Kamala Harris.

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