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DARK SECRETS: Polymarket | Vintage Vibes

Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh is worth more than $100 million and has stakes in SpaceX and Polymarket

Ahead of Warsh’s confirmation hearing next week, he disclosed his financial holdings.

Fortune

Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK

Eric Swalwell summoned by FBI as bets are placed on his arrest

IN FULL

The Independent UK

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Kash Patel invites Eric Swalwell to speak to FBI over sexual assault claims as Polymarket launches odds on his arrest

Eric Swalwell has vehemently denied the claims against him, describing them as ‘false allegations’ in a statement

The Independent UK

Wednesday briefing: Why are people turning global crises into high‑stakes bets?

In today’s newsletter: Prediction markets are reshaping how people interact with world events, turning warfare into a tradable speculation

The Guardian - UK

Betting against political prediction markets

The rise of political prediction markets and several well-timed trades have spurred lawmakers to introduce multiple bills aimed at stopping or regulating insider trading in prediction markets. But lawmakers are far from agreeing on how far to extend such bans. “Members of Congress should be prohibited from participating in prediction…

Roll Call

Iran-US war latest: Trump says war is close to over as US claims ‘maritime superiority’ in Middle East

JD Vance said Trump ‘wants to make the grand bargain’ with Iran after peace talks failed over the weekend

The Independent UK

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‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

Fortune

Harvard Study Estimates $143 Million in Polymarket Profits May Have Been Generated Through Insider Information

A Harvard-linked study and unusual betting activity have raised questions about possible insider information in Polymarket trades tied to Iran and Trump-related geopolitical events, though no wrongdoing has been proven.

International Business Times UK

White House warns staffers against placing bets on global events amid insider trading accusations

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Who Will Win the Election 2028? White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Platforms Like Polymarket

The White House has issued a blunt warning to staff against using insider information to bet on Election 2028 odds via platforms like Polymarket. This follows a $44bn surge in political wagering and concerns over insider trading linked to President Trump's recent military decisions. Lawmakers are now pushing for a…

International Business Times UK

White House warns staffers not to place bets on prediction markets amid the Iran war: report

Three new Polymarket accounts raked in over half a million dollars after accurately predicting the Iran War ceasefire

The Independent UK

Judge rejects bid to stop Arizona’s prosecution of Kalshi on wagering charges

A federal judge has denied a bid by prediction market operator Kalshi to bar Arizona prosecutors from moving forward with a criminal case against the company

The Independent UK

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news in one place.

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The Independent UK

Prediction markets are back the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran

We Got This Covered

‘Trump Jr. sits on the board’: Suspiciously timed Iran ceasefire bets on ‘prediction markets’ raise war profiteering concerns

War shouldn’t be something some people die over while others profit from it.

Euronews

Newly-made Polymarket accounts won massively on US-Iran ceasefire bets

Newly-made Polymarket accounts bet big on the US-Iran ceasefire mere hours before Trump's announcement profiting hundreds of thousands of dollars and raising suspicions of insider trading.

The Guardian - US

Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

Customers make hundreds of thousands of dollars as records show substantial bets made before announcement

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news in one place.

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The Independent UK

Insider trading accusations ignited amid well-timed US-Iran ceasefire bets on Polymarket

‘What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement? There are two answers: God, or an insider trader’

The Mary Sue

Polymarket Users Crush Servers After Trump’s Iran Threats

Polymarket users are running up the numbers on the app after United States President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran. Trump hinted that the government could bomb Iran at 8PM ET tonight.

The Guardian - US

Why do elite Democrats fear Hasan Piker?

The party establishment rushed to condemn the Twitch streamer after news of his alliance with a Michigan Senate candidate

The Mary Sue

Iraq vet lashes out at Polymarket for ‘disgusting’ bets on airmen’s lives in the Iran war

Online betting platform Polymarket has finally stopped accepting wagers on when U.S. warplane crew members, shot down in Iran, might be rescued, promising an investigation into how such a market ever appeared. According to The Guardian, this move comes after significant criticism, particularly from a federal lawmaker who called the…

International Business Times UK

'Dystopian Death Market': Polymarket Under Fire Over Bets on Rescue of Downed US F-15 Crew in Iran

Polymarket is criticised for allowing bets on the fate of US Air Force crew members after a jet incident in Iran, sparking ethical debates.

Fortune

Polymarket apologizes after letting users bet on downed U.S. pilots in Iran: 'It should not have been posted'

Prediction market bets on outcomes of the war in Iran have sparked ethical concerns. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said similar markets create “more money, more problems.”

The Guardian - US

Polymarket criticized over ‘disgusting’ bets on fate of pilots on US jet shot by Iran

US congressman decried bets on when two crew members on the F-15 jet shot down by Iranian forces would be rescued

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