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MYSTERIOUS: 8 | Mind Blowing Facts

Have an ICE Flight

Plus: Trump seems to back down from his Iranian ultimatum, Lindsey Graham is eager for another Iwo Jima, and more...

Reason

Trump impeachment odds soar to record high 69% on popular online betting platform

This figure has steadily risen over time, growing from 33 percent the week after the election to 59 percent after his inauguration

The Independent UK

Kalshi locks in $22 billion valuation, gaining slight edge over its fierce rival Polymarket

The startup has doubled its valuation in about two months.

Fortune

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
read the most diverse news in one place.

Polymarket Bar Is Coming to D.C.: “A sports bar for situation monitoring”

What could possibly go wrong?

The Mary Sue

$200 Billion War?

Plus: boots on the ground, The Bachelorette cancels season, Meta reverses itself on virtual reality, and more...

Reason

'A month ago, no one would have believed this': June Fed rate hike odds just surpassed rate cut odds as stagflation fears grow

The Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker places the odds of a rate hike at about 15% within the next three months.

Fortune

MLB partners with Polymarket, makes integrity pact with federal commission on prediction markets

Major League Baseball is entering an official partnership with Polymarket and has an agreement with the federal commission overseeing prediction markets to collaborate on integrity concerns

The Independent UK

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Mick Mulvaney: Stop calling it a 'prediction market.' It’s sports betting

The former White House chief of staff says it's time to call the illegal gambling operation, run through a regulatory backdoor, what it really is.

Fortune

Exclusive: Polymarket acquires the startup Brahma, in effort to scale its crypto and DeFi infrastructure.

The startup aims to help the prediction market platform become one of the biggest consumer-facing crypto companies.

Fortune

Polymarket gamblers threaten Israeli journalist over missile strike story

Emanuel Fabian says his routine report became focus of wager with $23m at stake on online prediction platform

The Guardian - UK

Scott Galloway wants the stock market to crash. Gen Z is already betting like it will

The NYU professor's SXSW broadside explained the prediction market boom—and "financial nihilism"—better than any economist has.

Fortune

A $14M Polymarket bet came down to one journalist’s report, but the losing side tracked down his parents’ address to force a correction

Gamblers didn’t take the loss lightly.

We Got This Covered

Why Prediction Market Kalshi Refused to Pay Out $54 Million Following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's Death

Kalshi is under fire for not paying out $54 million to traders who bet on Ayatollah Khamenei's removal, raising questions about prediction market rules.

International Business Times UK

Betting on 5-minute swings on Bitcoin price are the hot new thing on prediction markets

As Kalshi and Polymarket balloon in popularity, so too do quick-hit bets on crypto.

Fortune

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Barchart

Palantir Is Now a Sports Betting Stock. Does That Make PLTR a Buy Here?

Palantir still looks like a richly valued core AI infrastructure name where the sports-betting angle is a nice add-on — worth holding or buying on pullbacks, but not chasing blindly at more than 150 times forward earnings.

The Independent UK

Utah’s anti-gambling tradition meets Kalshi and Polymarket in a new legal fight

Utah has found itself at the forefront of a states' rights battle between itself and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Independent UK

Betting markets have a new favorite for the 2028 presidential election

Questions are mounting about who could run for the White House in 2028

Fortune

Polymarket taps Palantir AI to police sports betting before it's too late

The move is a reversal of the company’s previous stance that the platform could self-police.

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news in one place.

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The Guardian - US

MLS’s Polymarket deal looks even worse after players’ gambling bans

With its credibility swaying in the wake of a betting scandal, the very last thing the league needed was to be in business with a prediction platform

The Independent UK

Oil prices latest: UK inflation forecast to spike amid fears Iran war could trigger new cost of living crisis

Price of oil has surged since US and Israel launched airstrikes towards Iran 10 days ago

The Conversation

Gamblers can now bet on the outcome of wars – and that’s a problem

The growing threat of conflict in the Middle East last week prompted a flood of activity in a little-known area of betting: prediction markets in which users can bet on a particular military action.

The Independent UK

Musk’s two-word response to Anthropic CEO’s claim its AI may have gained consciousness

Anthropic makes the popular AI chatbot, Claude

The Independent UK

Betting, memes and AI slop: How the smartphone era turned war in Iran into a game show

IN DEPTH: As the war between Iran and the US and Israel enters its second week, the internet is awash with misinformation and doctored content while punters are waging bets on the outcome of the conflict using crypto. Experts tell Bryony Gooch that a new, frightening way of experiencing war…

The Guardian - UK

Betting on nuclear war: what are prediction markets and could they come to the UK?

The lowdown on Polymarket and Kalshi, the pitfalls and the odds on US-style exchanges taking off in Britain

Roll Call

Life After Congress: A prediction market duo

Sean Patrick Maloney and Patrick McHenry didn’t see eye to eye in Congress — but they’re united on this.

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People

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

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