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EXPLAINED: 6 | Vintage Vibes

Economists are loathe to mention recessions, but odds just hit 49% for the next 12 months according to Moody’s top economist

"If oil prices remain elevated for much longer (weeks and not months), a recession will be difficult to avoid," Zandi said.

Fortune

Moody's says a US recession is increasingly 'hard to avoid' amid Iran war

Moody’s Analytics model forecasts a 49% chance of a US recession in the next 12 months, the closest probability in years.

Euronews

PM calls national cabinet meeting over fuel crisis – as it happened

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The Guardian - AU

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Stocks haven't hit bottom yet, says the analyst who called a 'rolling recession' when everyone else saw a boom

Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says 50% of Russell 3000 stocks are already down 20% — and the selloff panicking investors this week started six months ago.

Fortune

Treasurer warns of major economic damage from Iran war

Fresh modelling shows oil price shocks and soaring prices for other commodities will have a lasting impact on Australia's economy.

AAP

Tesla Defies Recession Fears with AI Chip Terafab Plan as Cybercab Setback Tests Resilience

Tesla is making strategic moves with its AI chip production and a $4.3 billion battery deal with LG Energy Solution, aiming for greater control over its supply chain.

International Business Times UK

Is Dollar-Tree Stock a Recession-Proof Winner or a Ticking Time Bomb?

Dollar Tree stock gains on better-than-expected Q4 earnings. Guggenheim analysts explain why DLTR shares are worth owning in 2026.

Barchart

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Australian households fear double whammy of rate hikes and higher petrol prices will lead to recession

Borrowers face losing hundreds of dollars a month in higher repayments and rising pump rices will add to the pain, economists warn

The Guardian - AU

Ray Dalio Says US Will Lose The War With Iran if It Fails to Break the Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio warns that the United States risks an 'empire-ending' defeat and the collapse of the petrodollar if it fails to break Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

International Business Times UK

Trump's 'Art of the Deal' can't reopen the Strait of Hormuz — and it's threatening a recession

For four decades, Trump bent the rules, walked away from debts, and rewrote agreements midstream. The Strait of Hormuz defies the Art of the Deal.

Fortune

The Iran war is a new test of America's economic superpower

The economy's scale, diversity and adaptability have allowed it to continue chugging along whenever crises arise.

Axios

Goldman just raised recession odds to 25%. Here's what Trump's war economy is doing to jobs

Payrolls shed 92,000 jobs in February, openings keep falling, and Goldman says the breakeven rate isn't being met. The labor market is sending a warning.

Fortune

Recession and stagflation risks are rising due to Iran conflict, as economist warns it’s ‘getting harder to argue disruption will be temporary’

"Clearly, the longer that oil remains at these levels, expectations of a sustained shock will only grow," Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said.

Fortune

I Asked ChatGPT How the Middle Class Should Prepare for a Possible 2026 Recession: 7 Top Tips

Using ChatGPT, this breaks down seven practical tips to help middle‑class families prepare for a possible 2026 recession, from savings to job security.

GOBankingRates

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The Conversation

Iran oil shock: the EU has very few options to limit the war’s economic impact – and prevent a recession

After the US and Israel began their military strikes on Iran on February 28, oil and gas markets were plunged into chaos and energy prices shot up. As of today, Brent Crude Oil prices are 20% higher than in late February. They went from around $70 a barrel in late…

Axios

The Iran war's economic blowback is getting real

As oil prices surge, recession odds nearly doubled this month.

Fortune

'Nightmare scenario' looms as global markets head for the biggest oil output disruption in history, top energy guru warns

“The fear? That this will result in skyrocketing energy prices that send the world economy plummeting into a deep recession.”

Barchart

Iran War, CPI and Other Key Thing to Watch this Week

Markets enter a critical week following last week's February jobs report that showed the U.S. economy lost around 92,000 jobs, which was a dramatic miss that has intensified recession concerns and raised questions about economic resilience amid escalating geopolitical tensions.

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Euronews

Iran's strikes on Gulf energy sites rattle markets and raise recession fears

Iran’s apparent erratic strikes all over the Gulf and now Azerbaijan, together with its stranglehold of the vital Strait of Hormuz, have resulted in a growing strain on the world’s global energy supplies with incalculable consequences ahead.

Fortune

Anthropic just mapped out which jobs AI could potentially replace. A 'Great Recession for white-collar workers' is absolutely possible

The red jobs are what AI is doing now, Anthropic says. The blue ones are what it's coming for next.

Grocery Coupon Guide

5 Ways to Save on Groceries During a Recession

When the economy takes a massive downturn, the grocery store becomes a highly stressful environment for any family. You watch your monthly income stagnate while the price of basic bread and milk continues to climb relentlessly. Surviving a recession requires a completely different approach to how you stock your kitchen…

Euronews

'Then the euro will slide': Experts warn of prolonged war with Iran

Trump has given the Iran war four weeks. But if the conflict drags on, economists warn the euro could slide — and prominent economist Daniel Stelter goes further, predicting a full recession.

International Business Times UK

Strait of Hormuz Closure is a Guaranteed Global Recession, Inflation Risks Surge on Rising Oil Prices

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact global energy supply chains and drive up oil prices, which analysts believe could lead to a worldwide recession.

Fortune

How the war in Iran could ‘guarantee’ a global recession

How a waterway barely 30 miles wide could plunge the world into recession.

GOBankingRates

I Asked ChatGPT To Design a Recession-Proof Household Budget

I asked ChatGPT to help me design a recession-proof household budget for the three general "levels" of the middle-class.

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