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THE TRUTH ABOUT: The poll bludger - The Untold Story

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24%, but differ on which party is in the lead

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24% with Labor on top on primary votes in one and the Coalition in the other. Labor has a huge lead in New South Wales as the right vote is split under optional preferential voting. A record number of candidates will contest the…

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Labor down in Newspoll and Redbridge polls, with One Nation still in a clear second position

New federal polls from Newspoll and Redbridge have Labor’s primary vote dropping, with One Nation seven or nine points ahead of the Coalition in second place.

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Trump’s ratings recover a little after slump; Australian Labor retains large poll leads

Donald Trump’s net approval is up a little after a slump to a term low on November 23, as Republicans hold a federal seat at a special election. In Australia, Labor continues to hold large leads in federal polls, but received just 8.3% at the Hinchinbrook Queensland state byelection.

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Coalition’s primary vote plunges to record low and One Nation surges to record high in Newspoll

The Coalition’s primary vote slumped four points to a record low 24% in the latest Newspoll, while One Nation was up four points to a record high 15%. One Nation also surged to 15% in an Essential poll.

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Labor slides back in a Victorian Resolve poll; federal Labor still well on top

A Victorian Resolve poll has Labor sliding back after a surge in August. Federal Labor had a 55–45 lead in Resolve and a 54–46 lead in Redbridge, with One Nation recording its highest vote in any poll since 1998.

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Trump’s approval ratings slide, with Americans angry over inflation and Jimmy Kimmel

US President Donald Trump’s net approval in analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of US national polls slid two points in the last week to -9.4, after his ratings had been stable since late July. Currently, 53.1% disapprove of his performance, compared to 43.7% who approve.

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Liberals easily win most seats at Tasmanian election, but Labor may form government

With 63% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Tasmanian state election, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the final results will give the Liberals 39.7% of the statewide vote (up 3.0% since the March 2024 election), Labor just 25.7% (down 3.1%), the Greens 14.1% (up 0.2%), the Shooters 3.2% (up…

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Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition

Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2–11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5–24.5. I also cover a SA state poll that gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead.

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Labor gains a Senate seat from the Liberals in South Australia, while Jacqui Lambie is re-elected

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in SA, with the other two unchanged. There’s also been further counting in close lower house seats.

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Counts in Bradfield and Calwell become clearer, while Jacqui Lambie faces a possible problem in the Tasmanian Senate

Counting in several extremely close seats continues, but some results have become clearer. In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has taken the lead, while the Calwell distribution of preferences indicates an independent is on track to pass the Liberals and benefit from their preferences against Labor. Meanwhile, Jacqui Lambie…

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Likely final House seat outcome: 94 Labor, 44 Coalition, 12 Others

The ABC has called Labor wins in 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. The Coalition has won 43 seats, the Greens one and all Others 11, with two seats (Bradfield and Calwell) remaining undecided.

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Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call

With 78% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 39 for the Coalition, zero for the Greens and 10 for all Others, with 16 still undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 94 seats, the Coalition in 41,…

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Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents…

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Newspoll shows Labor’s lead steady at 52–48

While last week’s Morgan and YouGov polls had Labor continuing its surge, Newspoll is steady for the fourth successive week at 52–48 to Labor. A Redbridge poll of the marginal seats was again very strong for Labor, while YouGov and KJC seat polls were respectively good and bad for Labor.

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Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

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Preference deals can decide the outcome of a seat in an election – but not always

Every election cycle the media becomes infatuated, even if temporarily, with preference deals between parties. The 2025 election is no exception, with many media reports about preference “deals” being made.

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Newspoll steady as both leaders’ ratings fall; Labor surging in poll of marginal seats

With less than two weeks to go now until the federal election, the polls continue to favour the government being returned.

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Labor gains 5-point lead in a YouGov poll, taken during Trump tariff chaos

A national YouGov poll, conducted April 4–10 from a sample of 1,505, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the March 28 to April 3 YouGov poll. This is Labor’s best result in YouGov for 18 months, and slightly better for Labor than the 2022 election…

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Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today called the 2025 federal election for May 3. This will be an election for all 150 House of Representatives seats and 40 of the 76 senators (a normal House and half-Senate election).

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Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

The Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 9pm AEDT. A Newspoll, conducted February 27 to March 5 from a sample of 1,061, gave Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since an early February WA Newspoll.

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Labor gains in Redbridge poll of marginal seats and seizes lead in a Morgan poll

A poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research was conducted for the News Ltd tabloids on February 20–25, from a sample presumably over 1,000. The Coalition led by 50.5–49.5, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since the February 4–11 marginals poll.

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Coalition leading narrowly in four polls and would likely win an election held now

A national Newspoll, conducted February 10–14 from a sample of 1,244, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the previous Newspoll, three weeks ago. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 31% Labor (steady), 12% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (up one).

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Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others…

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South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down…

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Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

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