There’s been a lot of coverage about how Joe Biden is “losing” the youth vote. Depending on the poll you choose to analyze, the age breakdown may show Biden losing 18-29 year-olds by 1 point or more to Donald Trump, or winning them by over 20 points. In 2020, Biden won voters ages 18-29 by 24 points therefore, since he’s consistently polled below that as of late, the general consensus is that the president’s support from this age group has softened.
Perhaps the most important and accurate poll regarding the youth vote is the Harvard Youth Poll, conducted by John Della Volpe, a longtime youth polling expert. He focuses solely on the 18-29 year-old age group. His latest poll from April showed Biden leading Trump by 19 points among likely voters in this age group. This is much more believable than Trump winning these voters by any margin. Still, the poll does show less support than Biden had in 2020.
