Average S&P 500 earnings typically beat consensus in Q3, as the market has historically done. The S&P 500 tends to outperform by a modest single-digit figure, but that’s not the case in 2026. Average earnings could again blow past consensus because results to date reveal a disconnect. Q1 outperformance topped about 1,500 basis points (bps), and Q2 widened the gap to roughly 2,700 bps, a trend that could continue this quarter.
Consensus in early October is for a slowdown to about 29.5% growth, down from roughly 50% in Q2. Given the robust outperformance in Q1 and Q2, trends such as AI and high oil prices, and the relatively modest increase in Q3 estimates, the odds favor another beat. A move into the +50% range would require another unusually large upside surprise.
