UNCOVERED: Trump promised tax refunds would jump 1 000 or more the gains will go to wealthy americans experts say - Caught on Camera

But the latest Internal Revenue Service data, from March 27, shows the average refund was only $351 higher than refund amounts through March 2025, according to a review by The Independent.

And while the average may increase through the end of the year, those left with more than a grand in their pocket will be America’s highest earners, experts say.

“Fewer than half of American taxpayers making less than $100,000 will receive an increased tax refund this year, and their refund check will only be $208 larger than previously,” the independent, nonpartisan policy institute Center for American Progress wrote in February.

In general, the average refund tends to grow throughout the tax year. In 2025, the average refund was $1,928 on February 2, according to IRS data. By December 26, that figure rose to $3,167.

Wealthy taxpayers may be the reason behind that year-end increase. Wealthy people often file extensions because their tax returns tend to be more complicated, according to financial firm Larson Financial Holdings.

So as their returns roll in later in 2026, it’s likely the average for all taxpayers will rise based on the wealthy’s bigger refunds. Refunds would rise $748 on average across all Americans, according to the nonpartisan nonprofit Tax Foundation.

But as for “$1,000 or more” promised by the White House? That will go to the highest earners.

“Nearly all Americans making more than $200,000 will see an increased refund, and theirs will average over $2,000 more than last year,” the Center for American Progress wrote.

America’s lowest-income workers aren’t going to see much of difference in the money they get back from the IRS. Those who made less than $20,000 a year will average $13 more from their refund, while those who earned $20,000-$50,000 will receive $89 more, on average, the center estimated.

In fact, only workers who made at least $100,000 will see an average refund that comes close to or exceeds what the $1,000 White House projection from January.

The Independent asked the White House for comment.