While the U.S. Federal Reserve’s primary monetary policy tool is the short-term Fed Funds Rate, market forces determine interest rates further along the yield curve. In a June 5, 2025, Barchart article on Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, I concluded:
Moody’s reduced the U.S. sovereign credit rating because of debt concerns. Meanwhile, Republican opposition to the “big beautiful bill” in Congress and the Senate comes from members who believe increasing the debt is a tragic mistake. JP Morgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon told markets to expect a crack in the U.S. bond market, as he expects higher rates and lower bonds on the horizon.
Join 200K+ Subscribers: Find out why the midday Barchart Brief newsletter is a must-read for thousands daily.
The bond market is a real-time barometer of the U.S. credit rating. Time and events will tell if the long bond futures fall below the 107-04 technical support, which would validate Moody’s credit downgrade and Jamie Dimon’s forecast.
