INSANE: Fed funds rate | Vintage Vibes

Where is the Dollar Index Heading in 2026?

The dollar index has been trading around the 100 pivot point since mid-April, with most of its price action below that level. With lower interest rates on the horizon in 2026, it may not be long before the index falls below the first technical support level.

Barchart · Dec 16, 2025

Where are U.S. Government Bonds Heading in 2026?

The long-term trend in U.S. 30-year government Treasury Bond futures has been sideways since the low in October 2023. After over two years of trading in a narrow range, bonds and interest rates could break out of the current trend, with serious consequences for the economy.

Barchart · Nov 27, 2025

Will Bonds Rally?

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s main monetary policy tool is the control of short-term interest rates through the Fed Funds Rate. The market expects the Fed to reduce rates at the September FOMC meeting, but lowering short-term rates does not guarantee that longer-term interest rates will decline.

Barchart · Sep 11, 2025

Why is the Trend in Bonds Bearish?

The U.S. Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy using the short-term Fed Funds Rate as its most effective tool. Meanwhile, longer-term interest rates are a function of supply and demand and market sentiment.

Barchart · Oct 24, 2024

Barchart- Commodity Market Roundup: September’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Energy prices (sans natural gas) fell, while most other commodity prices rose in September as interest rates and the U.S. dollar declined.

Barchart · Sep 30, 2024

Will the Fed Push Bond Prices Higher?

The United States is the world’s wealthiest country, and the U.S. dollar has been the reserve currency or foreign exchange instrument of choice for over a century. Countries and investors worldwide have held U.S. sovereign debt because of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government’s economic and political…

Barchart · Sep 20, 2024

Can Lumber Sustain a Recovery?

Physical lumber prices have recovered after a significant Q2 decline as the market expects lower inflation to lead to falling short-term interest rates. However, the peak construction season will be in the rearview mirror in the coming months, so the wood futures market may have to wait until spring 2025…

Barchart · Aug 6, 2024

Bonds and QT: Did the Fed Send a Signal?

Quantitative tightening is the Fed’s process of reducing its balance sheet. After purchasing debt securities during and after the 2020 global pandemic, the U.S. central bank has allowed those purchases to roll off its balance sheet since March 2022. At the early May FOMC meeting, the Fed told markets it…

Barchart · May 17, 2024

Bonds: What is the Next Move in Interest Rates?

In 2023, the long bond futures fell to their lowest level since 2007 as the Fed fought inflation with a hawkish monetary policy path. The long bond futures recovered after reaching a low in October but have not broken out of the bearish trend intact since the 2020 high.

Barchart · Mar 20, 2024

Bonds Prices Rally: How High Can They Rise?

The long bond futures reached a sixteen-year low in October 2023. Rising short-term Fed Funds rates and quantitative tightening caused bonds to fall and rates to rise, choking economic growth. Higher rates weighed on the stock market and other asset classes over the past months. However, bonds have recovered since…

Barchart · Dec 14, 2023