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INSANE: Fed funds rate | Vintage Vibes

Where is the Dollar Index Heading in 2026?

The dollar index has been trading around the 100 pivot point since mid-April, with most of its price action below that level. With lower interest rates on the horizon in 2026, it may not be long before the index falls below the first technical support level.

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Where are U.S. Government Bonds Heading in 2026?

The long-term trend in U.S. 30-year government Treasury Bond futures has been sideways since the low in October 2023. After over two years of trading in a narrow range, bonds and interest rates could break out of the current trend, with serious consequences for the economy.

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Will Bonds Rally?

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s main monetary policy tool is the control of short-term interest rates through the Fed Funds Rate. The market expects the Fed to reduce rates at the September FOMC meeting, but lowering short-term rates does not guarantee that longer-term interest rates will decline.

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Commodity Market Roundup- July’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Commodity prices turned in mixed results in July 2025. Lower liquidity during the summer could have contributed to extreme volatility in the copper market. A strong dollar and lower US government bond prices were not bullish for the commodities asset class.

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Will U.S. Government Bonds Rally?

U.S. long-term interest rates remain elevated in July 2025, with the long bond futures in a two-year consolidation range that is closer to technical support than resistance. When the long bond futures eventually break higher or lower, the move will impact markets across all asset classes.

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Will U.S. Bonds Keep Falling?

The U.S. Fed has cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points since September 2024 and has told markets that more monetary policy easing is on the horizon. Meanwhile, longer-term rates continue to ignore the short-term rates as they climb to higher levels.

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Will Lumber Rally During the First Half of 2025?

The CME’s physical lumber futures contract for delivery in 2025 has been moving higher and is approaching a critical technical resistance level in late 2024.

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Why is the Trend in Bonds Bearish?

The U.S. Federal Reserve conducts monetary policy using the short-term Fed Funds Rate as its most effective tool. Meanwhile, longer-term interest rates are a function of supply and demand and market sentiment.

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Barchart- Commodity Market Roundup: September’s Top Performers and Underperformers

Energy prices (sans natural gas) fell, while most other commodity prices rose in September as interest rates and the U.S. dollar declined.

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Will the Fed Push Bond Prices Higher?

The United States is the world’s wealthiest country, and the U.S. dollar has been the reserve currency or foreign exchange instrument of choice for over a century. Countries and investors worldwide have held U.S. sovereign debt because of the full faith and credit of the U.S. government’s economic and political…

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Can Lumber Sustain a Recovery?

Physical lumber prices have recovered after a significant Q2 decline as the market expects lower inflation to lead to falling short-term interest rates. However, the peak construction season will be in the rearview mirror in the coming months, so the wood futures market may have to wait until spring 2025…

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Bonds and QT: Did the Fed Send a Signal?

Quantitative tightening is the Fed’s process of reducing its balance sheet. After purchasing debt securities during and after the 2020 global pandemic, the U.S. central bank has allowed those purchases to roll off its balance sheet since March 2022. At the early May FOMC meeting, the Fed told markets it…

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Bonds: What is the Next Move in Interest Rates?

In 2023, the long bond futures fell to their lowest level since 2007 as the Fed fought inflation with a hawkish monetary policy path. The long bond futures recovered after reaching a low in October but have not broken out of the bearish trend intact since the 2020 high.

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Bonds Prices Rally: How High Can They Rise?

The long bond futures reached a sixteen-year low in October 2023. Rising short-term Fed Funds rates and quantitative tightening caused bonds to fall and rates to rise, choking economic growth. Higher rates weighed on the stock market and other asset classes over the past months. However, bonds have recovered since…

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Can the Fed Continue to Hike Rates?

The U.S. central bank has taken the highest inflation in four decades seriously, increasing the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 500 basis points from March 2022 through May 2023. The Fed has also tightened credit for further maturities via quantitative tightening. While the consensus over the past year supported rate…

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Beware the global ripple effect from Fed rate hike

At its June 14-15 meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to hike its Fed Funds Rate by 75 basis points, the largest single hike since 1994, to 1.5-1.75% in order to tame inflation.

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