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BIZARRE: 29 - You Need To See This

Can Forex Interest Rates Predict the Next Recession?

The foreign exchange (forex) market is also the largest and most liquid market in the world, with more than 7.5 trillion dollars being traded per day.

inkl

The six starkest warnings from OBR as report lays bare the perilous state of UK public finances

Here are the most stark warnings in the Office for Budget Responsibility’s report

The Independent UK

Public finances on ‘unsustainable’ path due to spending promises, says OBR

Richard Hughes told a briefing in Liverpool that the projected rise in state pension spending would contributed to growing UK national debt.

Evening Standard

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The EU presidency says Europe must rearm within 5 years. It's unclear how that could be done.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen says Russia could pose a security threat to the European Union by the end of the decade and that defense industries in Europe and Ukraine must be ramped up

The Independent UK

OBR: Vulnerable UK faces 'daunting' threats to stability of public finances after welfare climbdown

Successive governments’ efforts to put the UK public finances have met with only “limited and temporary success” says watchdog

Evening Standard

UK public finances on ‘unsustainable’ path amid growing climate, debt and pension costs

Office for Budget Responsibility warns national debt on course to hit 270% of GDP by 2070 amid volatility

The Guardian - UK

Could new pipelines shield Canada from U.S. tariffs? The answer is complicated

It should come as no surprise that United States President Donald Trump’s tariff threats have renewed interest in building pipelines that don’t rely on access to the American market. Almost four million barrels of crude oil cross the Canada-U.S. border each day, generating revenue of more than $100 billion per…

The Conversation

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The world could get carved up into these 3 blocs as Trump tariffs fuel deglobalization. Here’s which side each country might join

Wells Fargo sketched out a hypothetical scenario where the world is divided into three trading blocs led by the U.S., China, and the EU.

Fortune

Elon Musk Backs Warren Buffett's Brutal '5-Minute Deficit Fix' To Ban Congress From Reelection If They Blow the Budget: '100% This Is the Way'

More than a decade ago, Warren Buffett said the national deficit could be solved in just five minutes. His plan? "You just pass a law that says that any time there is a deficit of more than 3% of GDP, all sitting members of Congress are ineligible for reelection."

Benzinga

A year of Keir: the first 365 days of Starmer in power

Three trade deals, five U-turns, 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence, eight ministerial resignations, 49 welfare rebels, record small boat crossings – the statistics behind Keir Starmer’s first year as prime minister explored by Alicja Hagopian and David Maddox

The Independent UK

Environmental Regulations Are Literally Baking Europeans to Death

Europe’s lower GDP, higher electricity prices, and strict environmental regulations impede the use of air conditioning, contributing to the continent’s annual 175,000 heat-related deaths.

Reason

Somalia has relied on aid for decades – can it survive without it?

Somalia is struggling with hunger, security and the impact of the climate crisis, despite decades of aid money worth billions of dollars, writes Nick Ferris. As aid money gets cut, is this the time for countries to wean themselves off aid dependency – and can they do it?

The Independent UK

Spain overtakes Japan in GDP per capita - what is behind the numbers?

Spain’s economy is thriving, driven by a global boost in services, mainly tourism, overtaking the sluggish performance of the Japanese economy in the last decade.

Euronews

This Obama Economist Just Called Out a Math Problem That Could Derail Trump's Debt Promise—And the Clock Is Ticking

Former Obama economic advisor Jason Furman just dropped a reality check that should have every investor paying attention to Washington’s fiscal math. In a pointed social media post, the Harvard economist highlighted a glaring problem with the Trump administration’s promise to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio by at least 3 percentage…

Benzinga

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GOBankingRates

6 Warning Signs of a Recession — and Where the US Economy Stands, According to George Kamel

Finance expert George Kamel recently broke down six recession warning signs. GOBankingRates asked finance experts how they feel about the recession markers.

Benzinga

Under the Radar: Income and Discipline Over Hype and Hope

As we head into the second half of 2025, the British economy is showing signs of stabilization, but it remains a structurally sluggish environment. The UK managed to avoid a technical recession in 2024, and GDP is growing again.

The Guardian - UK

UK households hit by squeeze on living standards despite fastest growth in G7

ONS confirms GDP growth at 0.7% between January and March but households saving less of disposable income

Evening Standard

UK economic rebound confirmed as consumer spending strengthens – ONS

The Office for National Statistic said gross domestic product rose by an unrevised 0.7% between January and March.

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Euronews

Everyone, including Spain, should reach 5% defence spending, Estonia's prime minister tells Euronews

In an exclusive interview with Euronews, Kristen Michal urged all NATO members, including Spain, to meet the 5% GDP defence spending target, emphasising the risks the continent faces from Russia.

The Guardian - AU

Afternoon Update: PM firm on defence budget; Minns’ team fronts caravan inquiry; and a yakuza turned lawyer

Anthony Albanese pushes back on pressure to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP

Radio France Internationale

France faces €5bn in fresh cuts as debt balloons to record high

France’s public debt rose again in early 2025, reaching just over €3.35 trillion at the end of the first quarter – 114 percent of GDP – official figures showed on Thursday. The government now says it needs to find another €5 billion in savings to rein in the ballooning deficit.

AAP

PM urged to hedge bets by boosting defence spending

Australia's plan for defence spending is a "hedge" against an uncertain future as the US intensifies the call for its allies to increase the money they invest.

The Conversation

NATO’s 5% of GDP defence target ramps up pressure on Australia to spend vastly more

After lobbying by US President Donald Trump, NATO leaders have promised to boost annual defence spending to 5% of their countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035.

Barchart

Nasdaq 100 Index Rallies to Record High on Speculation of Earlier Interest Rate Cuts

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) on Thursday closed up +0.80%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) closed up +0.94%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) closed up +0.94%. September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25 ) rose +0.75%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures...

Barchart

Dollar Falls to 3-1/4 Year Low as President Trump Looks to Fast-Track His Pick for New Fed Chair

The dollar index (DXY00 ) on Thursday fell by -0.54%, reaching a 3-1/4 year low. The dollar retreated following a Wall Street Journal report that said President Trump is considering accelerating the announcement of the next Fed Chair. The dollar remained lower on Thursday’s US economic news of a downward...

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