Reform UK’s support is more than a ‘protest’ vote, research suggests Leading polling expert Sir John Curtice says Farage’s party eating Conservatives ‘for breakfast, lunch and dinner’ The Independent UK · Jun 1
John Curtice gives verdict on impact of Murrell scandal on SNP support JOHN Curtice has given his verdict on the forthcoming Westminster by-elections in Scotland and whether the furore after Peter Murrell pled guilty to… The National (Scotland) · Jun 1
The Scottish electoral system has delivered its most disproportional result yet In the event, the SNP did not win the overall majority First Minister John Swinney sought in the 2026 Scottish election. However, between them the SNP and the Greens won 73 seats, 57% of all MSPs. It is the largest ever contingent of pro-independence MSPs at Holyrood. The Conversation · May 29
John Curtice reveals winners and losers of Scottish elections' voting system REFORM UK would be Scotland’s second largest party behind the SNP while Labour and the Greens tied for third if the Scottish election system… The National (Scotland) · May 20
Downing Street accused of plot to derail Andy Burnham’s by-election hopes Exclusive: Labour MPs are being briefed that Burnham could bring back Corbyn amid claims of a dirty tricks campaign to stop the Greater Manchester mayor The Independent UK · May 18
2026 elections mapped: how Labour lost ground in different directions Keir Starmer’s party has lost out to Reform and the Greens, with no respite in Scotland, Wales or England The Guardian - UK · May 11
Friday briefing: What the local election results tell us so far In today’s newsletter: gains for Reform and losses for Labour in early results, but experts say overall picture underlines ‘the fracturing of British politics’ The Guardian - UK · May 8
Sir John Curtice delivers blunt verdict on Starmer as Labour braces for election losses Sir Keir Starmer has “never been as popular” as his Labour Party, elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said as he analyzed the prime minister’s role in his party’s poor polling ahead of the local elections. The Independent UK · May 7
Eve-of-election poll suggests SNP’s lead is ‘tightening’ The poll came after elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the ‘odds are against’ a majority win for John Swinney’s party. Evening Standard · May 6
‘Odds against’ John Swinney’s SNP winning Holyrood majority, says polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice gave his latest view on the eve of Thursday’s Scottish Parliament election. Evening Standard · May 6
Local election protest votes are no time for defenestrating prime ministers THE INDEPENDENT VIEW: Editorial: However disastrous the outcome of the local elections, Labour’s leadership crisis will not be solved by hopping from replacement to replacement – as the Conservatives previously found out to their cost The Independent UK · May 4
Starmer will be forced out of No 10 – it’s just a matter of when and how, top pollster warns Exclusive: John Curtice says the likelihood of Keir Starmer leading Labour into the next election ‘is very low indeed’ The Independent UK · May 4
Scottish Tory leader Russell Findlay says he will not lose his seat at election Mr Findlay said he did not agree with analysis from Sir John Curtice that he could lose his seat if his candidate for the Eastwood constituency wins. Evening Standard · May 3
SNP bound to win ‘vast bulk’ of constituencies if polls are accurate – Curtice The polling expert however said the three current largest parties in Scotland are ‘all doing badly’ compared to the last election. Evening Standard · Apr 30
Evening Standard · Apr 29 Local elections 2026: Starmer 'may be saved' from worst nightmare by Labour surviving Green surge in London Professor Sir John Curtice cast doubt on whether Zack Polanski’s Green Party will make a ‘big breakthrough’ in the capital in the May 7 local elections
The Independent UK · Apr 27 Local elections mapped: Where Labour is facing a ‘calamity’ and the key seats to watch The governing party could see its worst-ever results on 7 May, experts have warned
The Independent UK · Apr 25 Unpopular Starmer a negative on the doorstep, Labour mayors warn as they fear local elections wipeout Exclusive: Labour mayors say repeated U-turns, failure to communicate successes, and the Peter Mandelson scandal are pushing voters away
The Guardian - UK · Mar 23 ‘Unprecedented territory’: are UK polls as volatile as they seem? – in charts In what is beginning to look like a fragmented five-party system, small swings carry outsized political consequences
The Independent UK · Mar 17 Polling guru says ‘no doubt’ Reform’s support is falling as Nigel Farage renews attack on YouGov Sir John Curtice and other polling analysts have noted the average for Nigel Farage’s party across polls has dropped in the past month
The Guardian - UK · Feb 27 Five key takeaways from the Gorton and Denton byelection The night saw a big win for the Greens, disappointment for Reform and landmark losses for Labour and the Tories
Evening Standard · Feb 17 London local elections leave Labour 'nowhere to hide' with Greens on march in the capital, new analysis But the city is such a Labour stronghold that it may cling onto many wards, says Professor Sir John Curtice
The Independent UK · Feb 17 Tories could be hit harder by local election U-turn than Labour, top pollster says John Curtice says the Conservative Party is facing challenges in large county councils now being forced to organise May elections
The Guardian - UK · Jan 29 The Polanski effect? These charts reveal how much the Greens have advanced The Green party has made gains under its leader – but there is also uncertainty ahead
The Independent UK · Jan 25 ‘We want a real political fight over this’: Why Starmer wants to make Brexit the key issue at the next election Exclusive: After tacking to the right on migration, it is on EU relations that the government believes it can strike a clear dividing line with opposition parties ahead of the next general election