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UNBELIEVABLE: 33 - The Untold Story

Election flows reveal nearly 90% of Greens preferenced Labor ahead of Coalition

Minor party preference flows for the federal election have been released, with Labor winning Greens preferences by 88.2–11.8, while the Coalition won One Nation preferences by 74.5–24.5. I also cover a SA state poll that gave Labor a massive 67–33 lead.

The Conversation

Final counting shows polls understated Labor in 2025 election almost as much as they overstated it in 2019

With almost all primary votes now counted to two-party preferred (as I explained on May 29), Labor has won the national two-party vote by a 55.3–44.7 margin, although this may drop to a 55.2–44.8 margin once the remaining votes from Bradfield come in.

The Conversation

Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat

The button was pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the New South Wales Senate today. All analysts expected Labor to win the final seat, for a three Labor, two Coalition, one Green result. Instead, One Nation won the final seat, for a two Labor, two Coalition, one Green and one…

The Conversation

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'Strong campaign': One Nation doubles in size in Senate

Pauline Hanson's One Nation has picked up a surprise fourth seat in the Senate, equalling the party's best result in parliament.

AAP

Labor gains Senate seats in Victoria and Queensland, and surges to a national 55.6–44.4 two-party margin

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in Victoria, the ACT, Queensland and Western Australia. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in Victoria, with the other two unchanged. I had a wrap of earlier button presses on Tuesday.

The Conversation

One Nation boosts parliamentary ranks with new senator

Pauline Hanson's party will grow from two to three in the next parliament, having won the final spot in the Senate in Western Australia.

AAP

Labor gains a Senate seat from the Liberals in South Australia, while Jacqui Lambie is re-elected

Buttons have been pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the Senate in South Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory. Labor gained a seat from the Liberals in SA, with the other two unchanged. There’s also been further counting in close lower house seats.

The Conversation

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Counts in Bradfield and Calwell become clearer, while Jacqui Lambie faces a possible problem in the Tasmanian Senate

Counting in several extremely close seats continues, but some results have become clearer. In Liberal-held Bradfield, Teal candidate Nicolette Boele has taken the lead, while the Calwell distribution of preferences indicates an independent is on track to pass the Liberals and benefit from their preferences against Labor. Meanwhile, Jacqui Lambie…

The Conversation

The band is breaking up: has the Coalition stopped making sense?

I remember seeing footage, several years ago, of a jubilant Malcolm Turnbull, then prime minister and Liberal leader, speaking in Tamworth to loyal members of the National Party. These were the rank and file who had spent weeks stumping for their man in New England, Nationals leader and deputy prime…

The Conversation

Tim Wilson urges scrutineers to ‘knock out informal votes’ for Zoe Daniel in leaked WhatsApp messages

Liberal candidate tells supporters in chat called ‘Goldstein blue tsunami’ that narrowing vote highlights ‘EXTREME necessity for scrutineers to be available’

The Guardian - AU

Sydney seat back in play as election counting narrows

The seat of Bradfield was called for the Liberals but is back in doubt after postal votes narrowed the gap for independent Nicolette Boele.

AAP

What did the parties say on TikTok in the election, and how? Here’s the campaign broken down in 5 charts

TikTok emerged as a key battleground in an election where young voters comprised a dominant share of the electorate. All the prominent political parties used the platform – especially after tactics by Labor contributed to its electoral success in 2022.

The Conversation

Labor likely to gain 5 senators, cementing the left’s Senate dominance

I previously wrote about the Senate the morning after the election. About half the Senate is elected at each House of Representatives election. Those up for election include six senators out of 12 for every state and all four territory senators. So 40 of the 76 senators were up for…

The Conversation

Sarah Witty v Adam Bandt: how an unlikely Labor champion took down a Greens giant

Melbourne was barely on the ALP’s radar as a seat it could win – but a sparsely funded campaign proved powerful

The Guardian - AU

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The Guardian - AU

Adam Bandt concedes defeat in seat of Melbourne as Greens leadership talks loom

Greens leader uses concession speech to urge media to treat climate crisis ‘as if our country is being invaded’

The Conversation

Election flops – a night to forget for minor parties on the left and the right

Minor parties were all the rage at the last election when, along with independent candidates, they secured almost a third of votes.

The Conversation

Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority

On Saturday, Labor won a thumping victory in the House of Representatives, and this has carried over to the Senate results.

The Conversation

Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents…

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Al Jazeera

Australia’s election will show if PM Anthony Albanese has won back voters

Australians will decide if they want to give Labor another chance as local and global issues weigh on voters’ minds.

The Guardian - AU

The polls point to a Labor win, but its primary vote is barely moving – can both things be true?

Labor’s confidence going into Saturday’s election is tempered by gnawing anxiety about the underlying polling data

The Guardian - AU

Preferences are more important than ever this election. See where Australian voters sent theirs last time

In some seats, preferences will make all the difference – and it’s not as simple as left or right. Explore what happened in your area in 2022

The Conversation

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Guardian - AU

Morning Mail: Nationals in One Nation deal, the man behind the Trumpet texts, top gong for Amyl and the Sniffers

A ‘handshake’ deal could help the Nationals win Hunter back from Labor; US economy stalls as Trump lashes out at interviewer

AAP

Shock poll predicts historic coalition election wipeout

The coalition's seat count will hit a near-80-year low, one analysis shows, as the opposition backtracks on mooted changes to school lessons.

The Guardian - AU

One Nation candidate whose preferences may help Coalition has railed against climate science and Covid ‘little Hitlers’

Exclusive: Stuart Bonds could hand the Nationals the seat of Hunter thanks to a preference deal and ‘last minute’ change to how-to-vote cards

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