UNCOVERED: 2 - Caught on Camera

Newspoll returns to a tie after Coalition leads, but Labor has worst result this term in Resolve

A national Newspoll, conducted December 2–6 from a sample of 1,258, had a 50–50 tie, a one-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll in early November. Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (steady), 11% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others…

The Conversation · Dec 8, 2024

South Australian Labor gains Black at byelection with big swing

A byelection occurred on Saturday in the South Australian Liberal-held state seat of Black. With all election day votes counted, Labor gained Black by a 60.6–39.4 margin over the Liberals, a 13.3% swing to Labor since the 2022 state election. Primary votes were 46.5% Labor (up 8.4%), 32.3% Liberals (down…

The Conversation · Nov 17, 2024

Harris gains in post-debate US national polls, but will her gains be sustained?

The United States presidential election will be held on November 5. In analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate of national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 48.9–46.0. In my previous US politics article on September 9, Harris led Trump by 48.7–46.2.

The Conversation · Sep 17, 2024

Dutton snatches preferred PM lead in Resolve poll as draft redistributions finished

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted June 11–15 from a sample of 1,607, gave the Coalition 36% of the primary vote (steady since the May post-budget Resolve poll), Labor 28% (down one), the Greens 14% (up two), One Nation 6% (down one), the UAP 1% (down one), independents…

The Conversation · Jun 16, 2024

Labor slumps in Newspoll to a tie with Coalition, with Albanese also down

A national Newspoll, conducted June 3–7 from a sample of 1,232, had Labor and the Coalition tied at 50–50, a two-point gain for the Coalition since the post-budget Newspoll, three weeks ago. This is Labor’s worst position in Newspoll since last November, following the fallout from the defeat of the…

The Conversation · Jun 10, 2024

Labor slightly helped by Victorian and WA draft federal redistributions

The electoral commission today released draft boundaries from a federal redistribution of Victoria and Western Australia. In WA, the new seat of Bullwinkel was created, while in Victoria, Higgins was abolished.

The Conversation · May 31, 2024

Freshwater national poll holds steady at a 50--50 tie between Labor and the Coalition as Trump set for big win in Iowa caucus

A national Freshwater poll for The Sunday Telegraph had a 50–50 tie between Labor and the Coalition, unchanged from a Freshwater poll for The Financial Review in mid-December.

The Conversation · Jan 15, 2024

Labor regains lead in Newspoll after tie, but Freshwater has a 50--50 tie

A national Newspoll, conducted December 11–15 from a sample of 1,219, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, a two-point gain for Labor since the previous Newspoll three weeks ago that had a 50–50 tie. Primary votes were 36% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up two), 13% Greens (steady), 7% One Nation…

The Conversation · Dec 18, 2023

Labor down but still has large lead in federal Resolve poll; it's close in Queensland

A federal Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted November 29 to December 3 from a sample of 1,605, gave Labor 35% of the primary vote (steady since November), the Coalition 34% (up four), the Greens 12% (down one), One Nation 5% (down two), the UAP 1% (down one), independents 9%…

The Conversation · Dec 5, 2023

Extra senators for ACT and NT will benefit left but increase malapportionment

The Poll Bludger has summarised the final report of the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters (JSCEM) that was released Monday. The most contentious recommendation is that the number of senators for both the ACT and the Northern Territory be increased from two to four.

The Conversation · Nov 29, 2023