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HISTORICAL FACTS: 2 - The Untold Story

Challenges ahead for popular premier as poll approaches

Navigating minority government has barely troubled Chris Minns but he faces fresh problems as voters turn towards One Nation and the coalition rebuilds.

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Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24%, but differ on which party is in the lead

Two Victorian polls have One Nation at 23–24% with Labor on top on primary votes in one and the Coalition in the other. Labor has a huge lead in New South Wales as the right vote is split under optional preferential voting. A record number of candidates will contest the…

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Labor down in Newspoll and Redbridge polls, with One Nation still in a clear second position

New federal polls from Newspoll and Redbridge have Labor’s primary vote dropping, with One Nation seven or nine points ahead of the Coalition in second place.

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2 of 3 new federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation, but Labor clearly ahead

The Morgan and YouGov federal polls have the Coalition gaining from One Nation since Angus Taylor replaced Sussan Ley as Liberal leader. Unlike the DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog polls that I reported Tuesday, these two polls have Labor clearly ahead of the Coalition and One Nation after preferences.

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Two new federal polls have One Nation gaining on Labor

Two new federal polls by DemosAU and Fox & Hedgehog have the combined primary vote for Labor and the Greens dropping as One Nation continues to surge. There’s no sign of a boost for the Coalition from Angus Taylor replacing Sussan Ley.

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SA Newspoll shows Liberal wipeout likely; Victorian Morgan poll puts One Nation first on primaries

A South Australian Newspoll has given the Liberals just 14% of the primary vote, four weeks before the state election.

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The Coalition leads in Victorian DemosAU poll, with One Nation posting 21% support

One Nation is just two points behind Labor in a Victorian state DemosAU poll, with the election in November. A federal Resolve poll has One Nation and the Coalition tied at 23% each with Labor well ahead.

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'Wildcard' One Nation eyes seats as surge hits state

Support is surging for One Nation in arguably Australia's most progressive state as the party prepares to field candidates at the upcoming election.

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One Nation surges into second place in two polls, but Labor remains well ahead after preferences

Five federal polls have been released in the last week, with three of them having some fieldwork after the Coalition split on January 22. One Nation is in second place on primary votes in the YouGov and DemosAU polls, leading the Coalition by five points in YouGov and three points…

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One Nation surges above Coalition in Newspoll as Labor still well ahead, in contrast with other polls

The aftermath of the Bondi terror attacks has brought about a shift in polling for the Albanese government, which has been riding high since its thumping win in the 2025 federal election.

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Three early January polls have Labor down, but disagree on One Nation’s vote

Three early January national polls have Labor sliding to between 52–53% two party preferred against the Coalition, down from around 55% to Labor before Anika Wells’ expenses scandal and Bondi. These polls are the worst for Labor since they unexpectedly won the May 2025 federal election in a landslide.

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Who’s going to the ballot box this year? Here’s the election state of play

This article covers the March South Australian state election and November Victorian state election. The United States will hold midterm elections in November, giving Democrats an opportunity to take control of Congress.

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Labor gains in Resolve poll as DemosAU poll has One Nation winning 12 House seats

Labor expanded its national lead in a Resolve poll as a DemosAU MRP poll had One Nation winning 12 House seats. In Victoria, the Coalition has a 51–49 lead in a Resolve poll. As the SA Liberal leader resigned, a new poll gave Labor a 61–39 lead.

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61% of Australians would struggle with an expense of a few thousand dollars: new poll

A new federal Resolve poll has found 61% of respondents would struggle to afford an expense of a few thousand dollars, compared to just 24% who said they would not. The 37-point margin is the highest since Resolve began asking this question in February 2023.

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Coalition’s primary vote plunges to record low and One Nation surges to record high in Newspoll

The Coalition’s primary vote slumped four points to a record low 24% in the latest Newspoll, while One Nation was up four points to a record high 15%. One Nation also surged to 15% in an Essential poll.

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Liberals easily win most seats at Tasmanian election, but Labor may form government

With 63% of enrolled voters counted in today’s Tasmanian state election, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the final results will give the Liberals 39.7% of the statewide vote (up 3.0% since the March 2024 election), Labor just 25.7% (down 3.1%), the Greens 14.1% (up 0.2%), the Shooters 3.2% (up…

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Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll

A new Tasmanian DemosAU poll gives the Liberals a 34.9–24.7 statewide vote lead over Labor, implying the Liberals will win the most seats but be short of a majority at this Saturday’s election. I also cover how the Coalition’s vote was inefficiently distributed at the federal election, as well as…

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Labor leads in two Victorian state polls, but Premier Jacinta Allan’s approval tanks

Labor leads in Victorian state polls by Newspoll and Redbridge, but Premier Jacinta Allan is very unpopular. Two federal polls give Labor big leads and a Tasmanian poll suggests Tasmanians would support Labor seeking to form a government with the Greens and independents.

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2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead

Two Tasmanian state polls imply another hung parliament at the July 19 election under Tasmania’s proportional system. In one of these polls, Labor leads the Liberals, while in the other the Liberals lead.

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Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

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Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

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Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election

Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.

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Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

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Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today called the 2025 federal election for May 3. This will be an election for all 150 House of Representatives seats and 40 of the 76 senators (a normal House and half-Senate election).

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Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

The Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 9pm AEDT. A Newspoll, conducted February 27 to March 5 from a sample of 1,061, gave Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since an early February WA Newspoll.

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