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HISTORICAL FACTS: 2 - The Untold Story

Hung parliament still likely outcome of Tasmanian election, with Liberals well ahead of Labor in new poll

A new Tasmanian DemosAU poll gives the Liberals a 34.9–24.7 statewide vote lead over Labor, implying the Liberals will win the most seats but be short of a majority at this Saturday’s election. I also cover how the Coalition’s vote was inefficiently distributed at the federal election, as well as…

The Conversation

Labor leads in two Victorian state polls, but Premier Jacinta Allan’s approval tanks

Labor leads in Victorian state polls by Newspoll and Redbridge, but Premier Jacinta Allan is very unpopular. Two federal polls give Labor big leads and a Tasmanian poll suggests Tasmanians would support Labor seeking to form a government with the Greens and independents.

The Conversation

2 polls have Tasmania headed for another hung parliament, but disagree on which party is ahead

Two Tasmanian state polls imply another hung parliament at the July 19 election under Tasmania’s proportional system. In one of these polls, Labor leads the Liberals, while in the other the Liberals lead.

The Conversation

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Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

The Conversation

Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

The Conversation

Labor maintains clear lead in all polls and is likely to win election

Labor leads by between 52–48 and 53–47 in four new national polls from Resolve, Essential, Morgan and DemosAU. While Labor’s vote slumped from a high 55.5–44.5 in Morgan to 53–47, such a slide hasn’t been seen in any other poll. Labor remains the likely winner of the election this Saturday.

The Conversation

Labor takes large leads in YouGov and Morgan polls as surge continues

With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

The Conversation

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Labor regains poll lead as election called for May 3

After weeks of speculation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today called the 2025 federal election for May 3. This will be an election for all 150 House of Representatives seats and 40 of the 76 senators (a normal House and half-Senate election).

The Conversation

Two polls predict a thumping victory for Labor in WA election, the first with a reformed upper house

The Western Australian state election will be held on Saturday, with polls closing at 9pm AEDT. A Newspoll, conducted February 27 to March 5 from a sample of 1,061, gave Labor a 57.5–42.5 lead, a 1.5-point gain for Labor since an early February WA Newspoll.

The Conversation

Labor crashes to a 55–45 deficit in Resolve despite interest rate cut

A national Resolve poll for Nine newspapers, conducted February 18–23 from a sample of 1,506, gave the Coalition a 55–45 lead by headline respondent preferences, a three-point gain for the Coalition since January. By 2022 election preference flows, the Coalition led by 52–48, a one-point gain for them.

The Conversation

WA Labor has thumping Newspoll lead a month before election; federal Labor improves

The Western Australian state election will be held on March 8. A Newspoll, conducted January 29 to February 4 from a sample of 1,039, gave Labor a 56–44 lead, from primary votes of 42% Labor, 32% Liberals, 3% Nationals, 12% Greens, 4% One Nation and 7% for all Others.

The Conversation

Nuclear energy debate draws stark gender split in Australia ahead of next year’s election

Survey finds 25 percentage point gender gap across all age brackets on whether nuclear power would be positive for the country, with majority of men saying it would

The Guardian - AU

Under-16 social media ban supported by 77% as economic sentiment lifts

A national YouGov poll, conducted November 15–21 from a sample of 1,515, had a 50–50 tie, unchanged from the previous YouGov poll in September. Primary votes were 38% Coalition (down one), 30% Labor (steady), 13% Greens (down one), 9% One Nation (up two) and 10% for all Others (steady).

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