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FOUND: 14 - You Need To See This

Everyone is losing on ‘sucker-bet’ laden prediction markets except a few seasoned pros

Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have seen a huge surge in business - but there are growing calls for greater regulation

The Independent UK

Exclusive: Kalshi announces steps to keep kids off prediction market

The prediction market is implementing new tools to prevent minors from trading, but is resisting calls to block ages 18-20.

Axios

The Federal Government Once Tried To Restrict Prediction Markets. Now It's Suing States To Save Them.

In a bid to “reaffirm its exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets such as Kalshi, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is suing six states for interfering in federally regulated financial markets.

Reason

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SEON CEO: Prediction markets can forecast the future. Can they survive their own manipulation problem?

The prediction markets supercycle has outpaced its regulatory infrastructure — and the next 12 months of CFTC rulemaking will determine

Fortune

Dan Patrick eyes closing “gambling loophole” for prediction markets. The feds stand in Texas’ way.

A Trump administration agency has sued other states that sought to regulate Kalshi, Polymarket and other prediction operations under their gambling laws.

The Texas Tribune

Will George RR Martin Release The Winds of Winter in 2026? Fans Warned by Grim Market Odds

Real‑money traders on US platform Kalshi now imply just an 11% chance that George RR Martin will announce a release date for The Winds of Winter by the end of 2026.

International Business Times UK

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it's the whole point

"You want the most accurate prices. That's pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions."

Fortune

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US gambling addiction is ‘out of control’ and requires a public health response, experts say

48% of men aged 18 to 49 had an account with at least one sports betting platform, according to one study

The Independent UK

Republicans are already calling on Trump to pardon special forces soldier accused of betting on Maduro’s capture

Anna Paulina Luna sys DOJ should prosecute ‘crooks in Congress’ next after service member accused of raking in more than $400,000

The Independent UK

US soldier involved in Maduro raid charged over alleged bets on capture

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket, could face up to 60 years in prison

The Guardian - US

At the Races: Never-ending redistricting

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Redistricting has already thrown a long shadow over the 2026 midterm elections, and we’re not done yet. As our colleague…

Roll Call

Politician defends betting on own election after Kalshi prediction market suspension

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Prediction market Kalshi suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races

Kalshi’s enforcement and legal counsel said two of the financial penalties were settlements, while one was disciplinary action

The Independent UK

Prediction site Kalshi fines three US candidates who bet on own elections

Disclosures come after firm tightened rules on insider trading, including candidates betting on own campaigns

The Guardian - US

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The Texas Tribune

Texas Republican candidate suspended by Kalshi for betting on his own election

Zeke Enriquez, who ran in the GOP primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District, was fined and barred from the prediction market platform for five years. Two candidates in other states were suspended for the same offense.

Fortune

Investors are valuing Polymarket at a discount to archrival Kalshi—and its crypto ties could be one reason why

Polymarket is fundraising at a reported $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi was last valued at $22 billion.

inkl

Prediction Markets and Social Gaming Under Legal Spotlight

Prediction markets and social games are turning the world into a casino.

The Guardian - US

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

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Fortune

The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Big crypto players Coinbase and Robinhood view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as allies and rivals.

Fortune

Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

International Business Times UK

Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 72% Record High as Fears of Third Impeachment Grow

Prediction markets show a 72% chance of Trump facing a third impeachment, driven by legal scrutiny and political tensions.

The Guardian - US

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

Fortune

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

The Independent UK

White House warns staffers not to place bets on prediction markets amid the Iran war: report

Three new Polymarket accounts raked in over half a million dollars after accurately predicting the Iran War ceasefire

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