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THE TRUTH ABOUT: Mrci | History Defined

Live Cattle Weakness Meets a Still-Tight Supply Picture

Live cattle futures have weakened, but this is not a story of expanding cattle supplies. Larger near-term feedlot inventories are pressuring prices, while fewer placements and a smaller calf crop point to tighter supplies ahead. #livecattle #futures

Complacency in Gold May Be Hiding the Next Big Move

Complacency in Gold May Be Hiding the Next Big Move

Gold just woke up, and a complacent market may be caught off guard. A 7-week breakout, a supportive seasonal window, and cooling rate-hike expectations point to an opportunity. But first, bulls must clear the declining 20-week SMA. Relief rally or trend reversal? #Gold

What Are Wheat Producers Seeing That Traders Aren't?

What Are Wheat Producers Seeing That Traders Aren't?

What Are Wheat Producers Seeing That Traders Aren't? Weather headlines and geopolitical tensions grab attention, but wheat keeps struggling to hold its rallies. Producers are selling into strength, seasonal trends favor weakness, and the technical picture is changing. Are they positioning for a bigger macro shift? #Wheat #Futures #Commodities #Trading

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Everyone Loves November Soybeans Right Now. History Doesn't!

Everyone sees the same soybean chart. Few will trade it the same way. Bulls see breakout fuel. Bears see harvest risk. When conviction cracks, opportunity appears. A 93% seasonal tendency, strong technicals, and conflicting signals make this a market worth watching.

Could Lean Hogs Be the Next Big Opportunity?

Is the next high-probability trade setting up in October Lean Hogs? From July 22–August 3, October hog futures have finished lower in 14 of the past 15 years (93%). Softening summer demand, expanding hog supplies, and heavy managed money short positioning all point to a seasonal window worth watching. The…

Wheat's Bullish Fundamentals Are Growing—So Why Do Prices Keep Falling?

Don't argue with the market. Everything about wheat's fundamentals says prices should be stronger... yet the trend has been down since May. Is the market wrong—or is it quietly signaling another leg lower? My latest article examines the battle between fundamentals, technicals, and seasonality to uncover what traders may be…

Has the Bond Market Missed the Oil Collapse? The Case for Lower Treasury Yields Into Early September

Crude oil has fallen back into the $60-$70 range, inflation fears are fading, and traders are pricing in a less restrictive Fed. Could Treasury yields be the next market to catch up? We break down the fundamentals, seasonals, and technicals, pointing toward lower yields into early September.

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Real Money Flows + Fed Pause + Seasonal Timing: The AUD Setup Traders Are Watching!

Real Money Flows + Fed Pause + Seasonal Timing: The AUD Setup Traders Are Watching!

The AUD seasonal setup into the June futures expiry is one of the cleanest in months. EOFY repatriation and hedging flows are hitting as Aussie firms square books ahead of June 30, while winter wheat and canola exports drive real trade flows into Asia. Add a pausing Fed that's erasing…

Can November Soybeans Challenge Contract Highs? Strong Crush Demand and Seasonal Strength Say It's Possible

Can November Soybeans Challenge Contract Highs? Strong Crush Demand and Seasonal Strength Say It's Possible

November soybeans may be setting up one of the better seasonal opportunities in ag markets right now. Record crush demand, bullish technicals, and a weather market season are all lining up at the same time. MRCI research also shows Nov beans closed higher in this seasonal window 12 of the…

Seasonal Tailwinds Are Aligning for 30 & 10-Year Treasuries – Here's the Setup

Seasonal Tailwinds Are Aligning for 30 & 10-Year Treasuries – Here's the Setup

There's a historically bullish seasonal window for longer-dated interest rates from now through early August. Lower liquidity in summer often leads to a "search for yield," big coupon reinvestment flows in June/July, and the classic "Sell in May" rotation into safer assets, which tends to support Treasuries. Add in softer…

Oil Shock + Hawkish Fed = Major EUR/USD Downside? Don't Miss These Trading Opportunities

Oil Shock + Hawkish Fed = Major EUR/USD Downside? Don't Miss These Trading Opportunities

Pressure is building fast on EUR/USD — and two powerful macro forces could send it lower in May. Higher oil prices from Strait of Hormuz disruptions are hammering European growth… while a potentially more hawkish Fed under Kevin Warsh is supercharging the US Dollar. Bearish EUR/USD isn't just a trade…

"Sell in May" Could Be Bad News for the Kiwi Dollar

"Sell in May" Could Be Bad News for the Kiwi Dollar

"Sell in May" isn't just an old saying — it has teeth in NZD/USD. Risk gets dumped, money runs to the US dollar, and the Kiwi often takes the hit. Add slowing global growth and RBNZ seasonal weakness, and the setup starts looking heavy. The bears may have a window.

Copper at the Edge: Why $6.00 Feels Like a Trap

Copper at the Edge: Why $6.00 Feels Like a Trap

Copper's sitting right around $6.00 after that wild ride from the January highs near $6.58 down to $5.24. Volume from specs and commercials is holding steady, but you can feel the tension. Long-term supply tightness from years of underinvestment plus data centers and EVs keeps the bull case alive… yet…

The Overlooked Trade: How Market Alignment Could Drive the Russell 2000 Index Move

The Overlooked Trade: How Market Alignment Could Drive the Russell 2000 Index Move

Did you know? The Russell 2000 Index may be getting quiet support from something most traders overlook—steady earnings growth inside the S&P 500. Strong large caps often set the stage for small-cap outperformance.

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DJIA Index: Macro Meets Technicals at a Turning Point

The DJIA Index in 2026 isn’t a simple trend—it’s a complex puzzle. Interest rates, Fed policy, global growth, and geopolitics are all pulling in different directions at once. If you’re not looking at the full picture, you’re missing the trade.

While Other Markets Panic, Corn Just Got a Constructive Edge – Here's Why

While stocks, crypto, metals, & bonds are getting whipsawed by tariffs and Middle East headlines, corn just quietly rallied 59¢ off the low $4.30s. July '26 futures are now near $4.87. Not a blow-off top, but the setup is turning constructive. Geopolitics might be handing producers a better pricing window…

From AI Mega-Spend to Tax Cash Flood—Nasdaq's Hidden Tailwinds

Nasdaq's done riding pure hype. We're shifting to real, durable fundamentals. Fed policy is in that sweet neutral zone—liquid enough, not overheating. Fiscal juice from OBBBA is flooding corps & consumers with cash (think pandemic stimulus speed). And AI infrastructure? $500–650B pouring into data centers & compute THIS YEAR alone.…

WTI Crude Oil May Futures — Geopolitical Turmoil Meets Seasonal Demand

Front-month WTI rallied back into the mid-$70s — the highest since mid-2025. Meanwhile, the May26/June26 calendar spread flipped from parity to a $2.22 premium to May. That’s structural tightening, not just headline volatility.

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Speculators Fell in Love—The Market Didn’t: Silver After Valentine’s Day

Historically, post–Valentine’s Day seasonals haven’t shown much love for silver. A short-term dip wouldn’t be surprising. The bigger trend? Still open for debate.

Crude Oil Breakout Backed by Seasonals, Technicals, and COT Report

Crude Oil fun fact: Crude Oil doesn't need bullish headlines to rally. It needs seasonals + structure + smart money alignment. Those boxes are getting checked.

Groundhog Day Gloom? Why the Nasdaq Is Shaking Off Phil's Shadow and Facing Reality

Punxsutawney Phil says six more weeks of winter. Traders say, "That explains the mood." Jokes aside, a key seasonal pattern is lining up for the Nasdaq—and it matters more than the weather!

Copper Shortage Isn't a Blip! It's the New Reality for Traders

Historical pattern alert: Copper loves to correct hard right after new ATHs. We're in that window now! Could see more chop into end-Jan before the seasonal spring higher. But the macro? Demand outrunning supply for YEARS. Don't fight the tape... but don't fight the trend either.

Quota Panic Fades as Live Cattle Eyes New Highs

Live Cattle Seasonal patterns are lining up like clockwork for another leg higher. Drought legacy + minimal heifer retention = no quick relief in sight. Tight supply still king in 2026!

Why Venezuela's Oil Comeback Won't Move Natural Gas Prices in 2026

January Nat Gas seasonal softness is showing up right on cue, thanks to those stuffed late-fall storage levels acting as a price cushion during peak winter demand. Charts + fundamentals lining up perfectly.

Why the Mexican Peso Could Keep Crushing the U.S. Dollar in 2026

The Mexican Peso crushed it in 2025 – up over 20% vs the USD! Higher rates in Mexico, a nearshoring boom from U.S. and Canadian companies, and a softer dollar made it happen. Peso is heading into 2026 strong!

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