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YOU WONT BELIEVE: 2 - What They Never Told You

Prediction markets' reputation comes back to earth after surprise result in Wisconsin

Kalshi and Polymarket gave Francesca Hong roughly a 95% chance of winning on the eve of the primary, before David Crowley’s upset.

Fortune

Prediction markets have a new frontrunner for the 2028 presidential election

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Prediction markets place election odds

Add betting markets to the list of things election officials are worried about this year

Salon

From analysis to the latest developments in health,
read the most diverse news in one place.

Bernie Sanders Slammed Google Co-Founder for Spending Millions to Stop California's Billionaire Tax Proposal—Crypto Punters Weigh Passage Odds

Cryptocurrency bookmakers slightly raised odds that California’s one-time billionaire wealth tax will pass in this year’s general election.

Benzinga

Nate Silver's New Election Model Makes Democrats Favorites to Flip Senate—Prediction Markets Aren't so Sure

Nate Silver‘s new midterm model launched Tuesday with a striking call: Democrats are 57.3% favorites to win the Senate, a chamber where they need a net gain of four seats against a 53-47 Republican majority.

Benzinga

New York Says Prediction Markets Are Predatory. It Is Investigating Them.

New York City announced that it is investigating prediction market betting websites, alleging that the companies use predatory marketing tactics to target young people.

International Business Times

The U.S. economy is a giant betting app

Senators oppose gambling on wildfire outcomes, but the financial sector rewards amoral wagers

Salon

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Kalshi's CEO is racing to build a futures market for AI's most precious resource, which could be worth $100 trillion by 2030

Compute is the new oil—but building its futures market may be just as messy.

Fortune

Government Shutdown Odds Just Dropped: Bitcoin Traders Are Reading It Wrong

The House passed a stopgap funding bill 220-205 on July 21, shoving the government's spending deadline from September 30 to December 4 and conveniently clear of the midterms.

International Business Times

Exclusive: River Markets announces $8.5 million seed round to build prediction market trading tools for institutions

The round was led by Haun Ventures alongside Y Combinator, Coinbase Ventures and others.

Fortune

Understand Prediction Markets Before They Come For You

As these platforms expand, they're targeting an older, more affluent audience. But it pays to be wary of the hype.

Kiplinger

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 ended Monday almost unchanged as investors weighed renewed uncertainty around U.S.-Iran negotiations against hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could eventually reopen. With key inflation data due this week, Polymarket traders are leaning toward another positive open Tuesday.

Benzinga

Kalshi cracks down on insider trading as Trump family looks to increase prediction market presence

Prediction markets are becoming intertwined with the government, and Kalshi is trying to prove it’s policing insider trading.

Fortune

Why the CFTC and States Like Utah Are Fighting Over Event Contracts — ‘You Can't Rebrand Illegal Gambling’

Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction market platforms face an existential threat in the form of legal challenges that suggest their event contracts are nothing more than illegal gambling games.

Barchart

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The Conversation

Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app exposes gaps in Canada’s gambling protections

Wealthsimple’s new prediction markets app recently launched, in partnership with Kalshi, an American prediction market platform. It’s only the second firm in the country authorized by Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization (CIRO) to do so, after Interactive Brokers Canada.

The Guardian - US

US senators urge crackdown on wildfire betting amid warnings of arson risk

Experts say growing trend on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi could motivate people to start fires to win money

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 snapped a four-session winning streak on Wednesday as investors locked in profits from technology stocks, even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record high. Despite the pullback, Polymarket traders continue to expect the benchmark index to rebound at Thursday’s open.

The Independent UK

Federal judge lets Utah enforce its anti-gambling laws on the prediction market Kalshi

Utah can enforce its strict anti-gambling laws on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket under a federal court ruling

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The Independent UK

Prediction market betting may influence arson as several states see unprecedented wildfires, Senators warn

Democratic lawmakers are sounding the alarm over betting on natural disasters, arguing that it both increases the risk of criminal activity and is morally wrong

Benzinga

Trump Says Hormuz Deal Could Come Within 48 Hours: Do Prediction Markets Back Him Up?

President Donald Trump said Tuesday night that Strait of Hormuz negotiations are “moving along very nicely” and promised an answer within 48 hours. Traders on Polymarket are pricing a wide gap between hearing an announcement and seeing ships move.

Benzinga

eBay Earnings Prediction Market Preview: Will Pokémon and GameStop Be a Topic?

Ryan Cohen has spent the summer pursuing eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY).

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 surged to a fresh record close on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings, easing oil prices and optimism over a potential breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran fueled another broad-based rally. Polymarket traders are now overwhelmingly betting the benchmark will extend those gains at Wednesday’s open.

Barchart

Why Michael Burry Is Doubling Down on DraftKings Stock

As prediction markets shake up sports betting, Michael Burry is betting the odds will swing back in DraftKings' favor.

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY) surged on Monday as easing geopolitical tensions, falling oil prices and renewed strength in megacap technology stocks fueled a broad market rally. Polymarket traders are now betting the benchmark index will build on those gains at Tuesday’s open.

Benzinga

Polymarket Trader Behind Suspicious Iran Ceasefire Bet Puts $40,000 on Netanyahu as Manipulation Fears Grow

A Polymarket trader who banked $200,000 by correctly calling the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has found a new market: whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister after Israel’s Oct. 27 election.

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