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HISTORICAL FACTS: 3 - Caught on Camera

Polymarket Trader Behind Suspicious Iran Ceasefire Bet Puts $40,000 on Netanyahu as Manipulation Fears Grow

A Polymarket trader who banked $200,000 by correctly calling the U.S.-Iran ceasefire has found a new market: whether Benjamin Netanyahu remains prime minister after Israel’s Oct. 27 election.

Benzinga

Prediction markets approach $200 million in wagered contracts on midterm elections

Welcome to the Monday, Aug. 3, 2026, Brew.

Ballotpedia

Prediction markets approach $200 million in settled contracts

An NBC News analysis found that in this election cycle, approximately $200 million has been wagered in prediction markets, where users have bet on election outcomes across the country.

Ballotpedia

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Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 rebounded sharply on Thursday as strong earnings from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and a broad rally in semiconductor stocks lifted investor sentiment following the previous session’s selloff. Polymarket traders now expect the benchmark index to extend those gains at Friday’s open.

Benzinga

New York Mets tap Novig as prediction market partner as MLB embraces new betting sector

The deal will allow Novig to integrate across the Mets’ ecosystem and run league‑approved markets.

Fortune

Polymarket Promo Code SIBONUS: Claim $20 Bonus for MLB & WNBA Prediction markets on Thursday

Trade MLB and WNBA games with Polymarket promo code SIBONUS for a $20 bonus. Deposit $10 to claim your welcome offer today.

Sports Illustrated

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 snapped a three-day winning streak on Wednesday as rising Treasury yields, a hawkish market reaction to the Federal Reserve and renewed geopolitical tensions sparked a broad-based selloff. Despite the sharp decline, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will bounce back at Thursday’s open.

Benzinga

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Warsh Says Five-Year Inflation Fight Won’t End Fast as 30-Year Tops 5.2%: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh held interest rates steady Wednesday for a fifth straight meeting, then told reporters that while the Fed "hasn’t done much in 42 days, the markets have done quite a bit."

Benzinga

Exclusive: Polymarket launches institute to fund independent academic research on prediction markets

The Polymarket Institute, which the company says is the first of its kind, will examine how event markets challenge traditional polling and projection models.

Fortune

Federal Judge Halts Minnesota's Prediction Market Ban, Signaling Other States' Efforts Might Be Illegal Too

A preliminary injunction will keep Kalshi and Polymarket active in the state after a district judge found federal law preempts the state's ban.

Reason

White House aide who made $100K betting on Trump speeches is out of his government job

President Donald Trump’s longtime teleprompter operator no longer works in government after he was placed on unpaid leave over alleged insider trading

The Independent UK

Minnesota's first-in-the-nation law banning prediction markets is halted in federal court

A federal judge has temporarily blocked Minnesota's law banning prediction markets, which was set to take effect Saturday

The Independent UK

'Prof G' Scott Galloway Says Morgan Stanley's $300 SPCX Target Is the Stuff of 'Romantic Comedies'

Scott Galloway says the analyst behind Morgan Stanley’s $300 price target on SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) is in the wrong line of work.

Benzinga

Polymarket Promo Code SIBONUS: Get $20 Trading Bonus for Yankees vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball

Claim a $20 trading bonus with Polymarket promo code SIBONUS for Yankees vs. Phillies Sunday Night Baseball. Deposit $10 to unlock your welcome offer.

Sports Illustrated

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The Guardian - UK

Will prediction market ‘catch fire’ in UK, replicating US boom?

World Cup and events like Clacton byelection is driving interest in sites such as Polymarket, with UK gamblers easily able to sidestep regulation

Sports Illustrated

Game Over? Diego Pavia Roster Prediction Market Low

Diego Pavia faces challenges to land on an NFL roster by Week 1 on Polymarket.

Fortune

LeBron James, the only billionaire currently active in the NBA, signs a minimum contract with the Philadelphia 76ers

"I’ve never been able to have no clue what to do and take real time to just think," the chosen one said about his latest decision.

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 suffered its steepest one-day decline in a month on Thursday as surging oil prices and earnings from Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) (NASDAQ:GOOG) rattled investors, but Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will rebound at Friday’s open.

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Fortune

The Miami Heat, LeBron James, and prediction markets: How a ‘mistake’ social media post turbocharged a $245 million wager

“There’s a market for everything, and I think people have recognized that there’s a market for everything,” Georgetown’s Marty Conway told Fortune.

Benzinga

Trump Jr.'s Investment Firm Posts 200% Returns, Helped by Polymarket's Meteoric Rise

Donald Trump Jr.’s investment firm 1789 Capital has reportedly generated returns of roughly 200%, driven partly by an early bet on prediction market platform Polymarket.

Latin Times

Polymarket Traders See Rising Odds of Cilia Flores' Release as Speculation Grows Over Possible U.S.-Venezuela Deal

Prediction market bettors are increasingly wagering that Cilia Flores, the wife of former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, could be released from U.S. custody before the end of the year, fueling speculation that Washington and Caracas may eventually reach some form of negotiated agreement.

The Independent UK

Prediction market Kalshi now has a ‘hub’ for bets on everything tied to the midterm elections

As interest in political betting grows, so do concerns about the potential for corruption and inside trading tied to popular exchanges

The Independent UK

Inside 1789 Capital - the investment firm run by Don Jr cashing in on his father’s policies

Critics said the rate at which 1789 Capital benefited from its proximity to the White House is ‘unprecedented’

Benzinga

Polymarket and Kalshi Are 'Likely' Underestimating Odds of Crypto Bill Passage Due to Insider Trading Restrictions, Says Fundstrat's Tom Lee

Tom Lee, co-Founder and Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on Tuesday that the Clarity Act has stronger passage odds than shown in prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Benzinga

Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

The S&P 500 rallied on Tuesday as strong corporate earnings and a rebound in semiconductor stocks lifted equities. However, Polymarket traders are betting the benchmark index will open lower on Wednesday as rising oil prices and renewed inflation concerns cloud the outlook.

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