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INSANE: 12 | Vintage Vibes

Insider trading accusations ignited amid well-timed US-Iran ceasefire bets on Polymarket

‘What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement? There are two answers: God, or an insider trader’

The Independent UK

Polymarket Users Crush Servers After Trump’s Iran Threats

Polymarket users are running up the numbers on the app after United States President Donald Trump’s threats against Iran. Trump hinted that the government could bomb Iran at 8PM ET tonight.

The Mary Sue

Why do elite Democrats fear Hasan Piker?

The party establishment rushed to condemn the Twitch streamer after news of his alliance with a Michigan Senate candidate

The Guardian - US

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Iraq vet lashes out at Polymarket for ‘disgusting’ bets on airmen’s lives in the Iran war

Online betting platform Polymarket has finally stopped accepting wagers on when U.S. warplane crew members, shot down in Iran, might be rescued, promising an investigation into how such a market ever appeared. According to The Guardian, this move comes after significant criticism, particularly from a federal lawmaker who called the…

The Mary Sue

'Dystopian Death Market': Polymarket Under Fire Over Bets on Rescue of Downed US F-15 Crew in Iran

Polymarket is criticised for allowing bets on the fate of US Air Force crew members after a jet incident in Iran, sparking ethical debates.

International Business Times UK

Polymarket apologizes after letting users bet on downed U.S. pilots in Iran: 'It should not have been posted'

Prediction market bets on outcomes of the war in Iran have sparked ethical concerns. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said similar markets create “more money, more problems.”

Fortune

Polymarket criticized over ‘disgusting’ bets on fate of pilots on US jet shot by Iran

US congressman decried bets on when two crew members on the F-15 jet shot down by Iranian forces would be rescued

The Guardian - US

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Polymarket pulls bets on fate of missing US pilot after intense backlash

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The Independent UK

Polymarket pulls bet on fate of US pilot missing in Iran amid uproar: ‘Dystopian death market’

Polymarket said the bet was taken down ‘immediately’ and it was investigating

The Independent UK

US government sues Illinois, alleging unlawful efforts to regulate prediction markets

Booming prediction market sites, such as Kalshi and Polymarket, face scrutiny from states and Congress

The Guardian - US

‘We demand an immediate retraction’: Pentagon is fuming after Pete Hegseth’s alleged true motive for declaring no mercy for Iran is exposed

Hegseth has some explaining to do.

We Got This Covered

MLB doubles down on gambling with new Polymarket deal

MLB’s past few seasons have been plagued by a spate of gambling scandals.

The Conversation

Prediction markets caught insider traders in real time. Congress wants to shut them down anyway

Blockchain-based platforms Polymarket and Kalshi are doing what Wall Street regulators never could—leaving a public, immutable trail of suspicious trades.

Fortune

Prediction markets have sparked a golden age of insider trading—but the party may be coming to an end

Suspicious wagers on everything from U.S. military actions to MrBeast episodes have finally roused officials to take action.

Fortune

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The Guardian - UK

Polymarket and other prediction platforms driving oil market, traders say

Datafeeds from platforms being used to create algorithms that determine multimillion-dollar trades on global market

Fortune

New top federal enforcer has his sights set on ending insider trading in prediction markets

“We will aggressively detect, investigate, and where appropriate, prosecute insider trading in the prediction markets,” said CFTC director of enforcement David Miller.

TechRadar

10 wild things people are building with OpenClaw

From multi-agent dev pipelines to smart home controllers and overnight trading bots, here are 10 of the most interesting OpenClaw community builds right now.

The Conversation

How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets

Though prediction markets have been legal in the U.S. for less than 18 months, they can’t stop making news and making money.

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The Mary Sue

‘I’m signing an executive order’: Gavin Newsom just pulled a president-worthy move, and Donald Trump won’t recover anytime soon

California Governor Gavin Newsom is signing an executive order today that bans state officials with insider information from betting on prediction markets. This move directly expands existing ethics rules, prohibiting state appointees from using non-public information to enrich themselves or their family members through these fast-growing platforms. The order takes…

We Got This Covered

I’m signing an executive order’: Gavin Newsom makes his first president-worthy move, and it’s a direct slap in Donald Trump’s face

The public will always lose out to the Trump clan.

Euronews

Investors dump Orbán-linked stocks as poll shows opposition with 23-point lead

In a single day, the share price of two holding companies on the Budapest Stock Exchange with links to the Orbán government, 4iG and Opus Global, fell 10-12%.

International Business Times

Prediction Markets Now Face Major Potential Ban on Most Popular Betting Targets

Proposed legislation is taking aim at prediction markets, promising to ban transactions on sports, politics, news, and entertainment.

International Business Times UK

Senator Murphy Alleges 'Corrupt' Insider Trading After £1.17 Billion Futures Bet Placed Minutes Before Trump's Iran Post

An anonymous trader's massive futures trades just before Trump's Iran strike pause announcement have sparked insider trading allegations from a US senator and a Nobel Prize-winning economist.

Salon

The trades before Trump’s reversal

Unusually timed trades around Trump’s Iran announcement have raised questions about who knew what and when

The Independent UK

Polymarket opens pop-up bar for in person bets - but its first night was a bust

Polymarket’s ‘Monitoring the Situation’ bar was a three-day pop-up event in Washington, D.C.

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