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YOU WONT BELIEVE: 11 | Mind Blowing Facts

Silicon Valley is building its own news-industrial complex

"Monitoring the Situation" has become one of the most viral and lucrative memes in tech.

Axios

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Guardian - US

Polymarket in fundraising talks that could value the prediction platform at $15bn

Bets placed on Middle East conflict has led to US firm experiencing big increase in volume

The Guardian - UK

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The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Big crypto players Coinbase and Robinhood view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as allies and rivals.

Fortune

Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

Fortune

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - US

Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh is worth more than $100 million and has stakes in SpaceX and Polymarket

Ahead of Warsh’s confirmation hearing next week, he disclosed his financial holdings.

Fortune

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Democrats Surge to 61% Chance of Winning 2028 Election as Early Forecast Signals Major Political Shift

Prediction markets indicate a Democratic advantage in the 2028 US presidential race, driven by Trump's low approval ratings and midterm election trends favoring Democrats.

International Business Times UK

Eric Swalwell summoned by FBI as bets are placed on his arrest

IN FULL

The Independent UK

Kash Patel invites Eric Swalwell to speak to FBI over sexual assault claims as Polymarket launches odds on his arrest

Eric Swalwell has vehemently denied the claims against him, describing them as ‘false allegations’ in a statement

The Independent UK

Wednesday briefing: Why are people turning global crises into high‑stakes bets?

In today’s newsletter: Prediction markets are reshaping how people interact with world events, turning warfare into a tradable speculation

The Guardian - UK

Betting against political prediction markets

The rise of political prediction markets and several well-timed trades have spurred lawmakers to introduce multiple bills aimed at stopping or regulating insider trading in prediction markets. But lawmakers are far from agreeing on how far to extend such bans. “Members of Congress should be prohibited from participating in prediction…

Roll Call

Iran-US war latest: Trump says war is close to over as US claims ‘maritime superiority’ in Middle East

JD Vance said Trump ‘wants to make the grand bargain’ with Iran after peace talks failed over the weekend

The Independent UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

The Guardian - UK

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Fortune

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

International Business Times UK

Harvard Study Estimates $143 Million in Polymarket Profits May Have Been Generated Through Insider Information

A Harvard-linked study and unusual betting activity have raised questions about possible insider information in Polymarket trades tied to Iran and Trump-related geopolitical events, though no wrongdoing has been proven.

The Independent UK

White House warns staffers against placing bets on global events amid insider trading accusations

IN FULL

International Business Times UK

Who Will Win the Election 2028? White House Warns Staff Against Betting on Platforms Like Polymarket

The White House has issued a blunt warning to staff against using insider information to bet on Election 2028 odds via platforms like Polymarket. This follows a $44bn surge in political wagering and concerns over insider trading linked to President Trump's recent military decisions. Lawmakers are now pushing for a…

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The Independent UK

White House warns staffers not to place bets on prediction markets amid the Iran war: report

Three new Polymarket accounts raked in over half a million dollars after accurately predicting the Iran War ceasefire

The Independent UK

Judge rejects bid to stop Arizona’s prosecution of Kalshi on wagering charges

A federal judge has denied a bid by prediction market operator Kalshi to bar Arizona prosecutors from moving forward with a criminal case against the company

The Independent UK

Prediction markets are back the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran

We Got This Covered

‘Trump Jr. sits on the board’: Suspiciously timed Iran ceasefire bets on ‘prediction markets’ raise war profiteering concerns

War shouldn’t be something some people die over while others profit from it.

Euronews

Newly-made Polymarket accounts won massively on US-Iran ceasefire bets

Newly-made Polymarket accounts bet big on the US-Iran ceasefire mere hours before Trump's announcement profiting hundreds of thousands of dollars and raising suspicions of insider trading.

The Guardian - US

Newly created Polymarket accounts win big on well-timed Iran ceasefire bets

Customers make hundreds of thousands of dollars as records show substantial bets made before announcement

The Independent UK

Insider trading accusations ignited amid well-timed US-Iran ceasefire bets on Polymarket

‘What is the statistical likelihood that of anyone other than an insider trader placing a winning bet 12 minutes before a market-moving presidential announcement? There are two answers: God, or an insider trader’

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