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MYSTERIOUS: Predictit | Mind Blowing Facts

Everything can be a bet now – the rise and risks of prediction markets

Yes or no? It’s a simple question that now drives more than US$13 billion (£9.7 billion) a month on prediction markets – companies like Polymarket, PredictIt and Kalshi.

The Conversation

October surprise: Trump just blew a huge lead, and the Madison Square Garden rally started the drop, says top data scientist

Miller's numbers show a jaw-dropping swing to Harris that would have seemed unimaginable two weeks ago.

Fortune

The latest betting odds on Trump vs Harris

What do the betting markets look like ahead of the presidential election — and should we read anything into them, really?

The Independent UK

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Who is winning the election? Top data scientist launches electoral vote counter that shows the race moving in real time

Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University, bases his predictions not on the polls, but on where people are placing political bets.

Fortune

Robinhood wants a piece of the prediction markets pie: Users can now bet on who will win the presidential election

In recent weeks, prediction markets have shifted heavily in favor of Donald Trump, while voter polls show him tied with Kamala Harris.

Fortune

Prominent data scientist gives election odds: Trump leads, but Harris is gaining

Thomas Miller, a data scientist and professor at Northwestern University, says the 2024 presidential race has whipsawed over the past several weeks.

Fortune

‘That’s a good thing for democracy’: Is gambling making politics fun?

Is election betting good fun, civic engagement, or a threat to democracy itself? asks Josh Marcus

The Independent UK

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Donald Trump gains the upper hand in the prediction markets—an indicator more accurate than polls, expert claims

More than $1.9 billion in crypto has been wagered on this presidential election on Polymarket. Here's why that matters

Fortune

Harris-Trump polls tighten, but PredictIt and Polymarket tell a different story

Prediction markets currently show Trump is more likely to win the 2024 presidential election.

Fortune

Kamala Harris holds a 66-electoral-vote lead over Donald Trump, calculates prominent data scientist

Data scientist Thomas Miller has crafted a model for forecasting the 2024 presidential election that appears far more reliable than polling.

Fortune

Data scientist nails the Trump gaffe that started what looks today like a Harris landslide

"That event, and not the debate that just made things worse for Trump, marked the decisive turning point in the campaign."

Fortune

Harris is leading Trump, and it may be a landslide says top data scientist

The election has "gone from a drastic landslide in Trump's direction to a drastic landslide for Harris," marvels Northwestern's Thomas Miller.

Fortune

Second Trump assassination attempt isn’t changing the state of the race

Odds in prediction markets for the presidential election remain where they were before a would-be shooter was caught on Sunday.

Fortune

Harris has a narrow lead on Trump post-debate, prediction markets say

The real markets are moving out of Trump trades, too.

Fortune

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Barchart

Stocks Move Higher After Today's CPI Report

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is up +0.58%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is up by +0.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is up by +1.52%. After starting the day in the red, stocks have rebounded this afternoon....

Barchart

Stocks Undercut as US Core Inflation Fails to Decline

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX ) (SPY ) today is down by -0.60%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI ) (DIA ) is down by -1.06%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX ) (QQQ ) is down by -0.19%. Stocks are under pressure today, with the Dow Jones Industrials falling...

The Independent UK

Trump creeps past Harris in new betting odds as election hits final stretch

Betting odds for Donald Trump surpassed Kamala Harris on Labor Day

Fortune

In election race, prediction markets are challenging traditional polling

Before scientific polling, newspapers relied on betting markets to predict the outcome of elections, often with remarkable accuracy.

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The Independent UK

Kamala Harris takes lead over Trump in betting odds for the first time

Platform PredictIt has bets on a Harris presidency at 54 cents, while Trump bets are at 50 cents.

Top News

Kamala Harris Gains Ground On Trump In Election Betting Markets

Vice President Kamala Harris gains ground in election betting markets, narrowing the gap with Trump. Polls indicate a potentially close race.

Fortune

Prediction markets post-Biden: Trump's chances down slightly, but Harris' odds jump to 40%

Prediction markets paint a clear picture of who could become the Democratic nominee. But how Joe Biden's resignation will alter the race for the White House remains uncertain.

Ballotpedia

Joe Biden, Donald Trump tied in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market

As of March 19, 2024, PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market shows President Joe Biden (D) and former President Donald Trump (R) tied at $0.47. No other candidate has more than a $0.10 share price. The share price, which rises and falls based on market demand, roughly corresponds to the…

Ballotpedia

Joe Biden, Donald Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

As of Jan. 23, 2024, former President Donald Trump (R) holds a lead in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Ballotpedia

Joe Biden, Donald Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

As of Jan. 17, 2024, former President Donald Trump (R) leads in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

Ballotpedia

Joe Biden, Donald Trump lead respective presidential primary polling averages and PredictIt markets

As of Jan. 9, 2024, former President Donald Trump (R) holds a lead in both RealClearPolitics’ (RCP) Republican presidential primary polling average and PredictIt’s Republican presidential primary market.

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