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REVEALED: Kalshi - The Real Truth

Will George RR Martin Release The Winds of Winter in 2026? Fans Warned by Grim Market Odds

Real‑money traders on US platform Kalshi now imply just an 11% chance that George RR Martin will announce a release date for The Winds of Winter by the end of 2026.

International Business Times UK

Kalshi and Polymarket are racing to ban insider trading. The economist who built the theory behind prediction markets says it's the whole point

"You want the most accurate prices. That's pretty clear. The purpose of the market is to inform decisions."

Fortune

US gambling addiction is ‘out of control’ and requires a public health response, experts say

48% of men aged 18 to 49 had an account with at least one sports betting platform, according to one study

The Independent UK

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Republicans are already calling on Trump to pardon special forces soldier accused of betting on Maduro’s capture

Anna Paulina Luna sys DOJ should prosecute ‘crooks in Congress’ next after service member accused of raking in more than $400,000

The Independent UK

US soldier involved in Maduro raid charged over alleged bets on capture

Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly made more than $400,000 on Polymarket, could face up to 60 years in prison

The Guardian - US

At the Races: Never-ending redistricting

Welcome to At the Races! Each week we bring you news and analysis from the CQ Roll Call campaign team. Know someone who’d like to get this newsletter? They can subscribe here. Redistricting has already thrown a long shadow over the 2026 midterm elections, and we’re not done yet. As our colleague…

Roll Call

Politician defends betting on own election after Kalshi prediction market suspension

IN FULL

The Independent UK

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Prediction market Kalshi suspends three political candidates for betting on their own races

Kalshi’s enforcement and legal counsel said two of the financial penalties were settlements, while one was disciplinary action

The Independent UK

Prediction site Kalshi fines three US candidates who bet on own elections

Disclosures come after firm tightened rules on insider trading, including candidates betting on own campaigns

The Guardian - US

Texas Republican candidate suspended by Kalshi for betting on his own election

Zeke Enriquez, who ran in the GOP primary for Texas’ 21st Congressional District, was fined and barred from the prediction market platform for five years. Two candidates in other states were suspended for the same offense.

The Texas Tribune

Investors are valuing Polymarket at a discount to archrival Kalshi—and its crypto ties could be one reason why

Polymarket is fundraising at a reported $15 billion valuation, while Kalshi was last valued at $22 billion.

Fortune

Prediction Markets and Social Gaming Under Legal Spotlight

Prediction markets and social games are turning the world into a casino.

inkl

John Oliver on prediction markets: ‘Betting on war is really dark’

The Last Week Tonight host dug into the rapidly expanding, poorly regulated free-for-all of ‘prediction markets’ like Kalshi and Polymarket

The Guardian - US

The crypto industry and prediction markets share a mission of disruption—but it’s not clear where crypto fits in

Big crypto players Coinbase and Robinhood view platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi as allies and rivals.

Fortune

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Fortune

Kalshi’s fight over sports betting is hurtling toward the Supreme Court—and the future of gambling is at stake

Kalshi is in a make-or-break fight to preserve a lucrative new prediction markets industry, expected to grow to over $200 billion this year.

International Business Times UK

Trump Impeachment Odds Hit 72% Record High as Fears of Third Impeachment Grow

Prediction markets show a 72% chance of Trump facing a third impeachment, driven by legal scrutiny and political tensions.

The Guardian - US

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on?

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers

The Guardian - UK

‘Abhorrent’: the inside story of the Polymarket gamblers betting millions on war

A Guardian investigation reveals how the prediction market can shape news – and how it rules on ‘the truth’

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Fortune

Prediction markets have made betting easier than ever—and young men are paying the price

“I think about that money I lost every single day,” says Samuel Sharkey, a 23-year-old who lost about $10,000 on Kalshi.

The Independent UK

White House warns staffers not to place bets on prediction markets amid the Iran war: report

Three new Polymarket accounts raked in over half a million dollars after accurately predicting the Iran War ceasefire

The Independent UK

Prediction markets are back the spotlight, this time because of the war in Iran

Prediction markets let people wager on anything from a basketball game to the outcome of a presidential election — and recently, even the fate of the U.S. and Israel’s war against Iran

International Business Times UK

Betting Against George RR Martin: Why Prediction Markets Give The Winds of Winter a Staggering 83% Chance of Failure

Prediction markets on US exchange Kalshi now assign only a slim chance that George RR Martin will announce a release date for The Winds of Winter by the end of 2026.

Axios

WATCH: Kalshi founders talk insider trading, gambling, Don Jr. on "The Axios Show"

Kalshi has become very big business.

The Mary Sue

Iraq vet lashes out at Polymarket for ‘disgusting’ bets on airmen’s lives in the Iran war

Online betting platform Polymarket has finally stopped accepting wagers on when U.S. warplane crew members, shot down in Iran, might be rescued, promising an investigation into how such a market ever appeared. According to The Guardian, this move comes after significant criticism, particularly from a federal lawmaker who called the…

Fortune

Polymarket apologizes after letting users bet on downed U.S. pilots in Iran: 'It should not have been posted'

Prediction market bets on outcomes of the war in Iran have sparked ethical concerns. Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said similar markets create “more money, more problems.”

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